Rangebound pricing stands between long-term and short-term traders & chart time frames, writes Trevor Smith.

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) weekly chart is an unfulfilled downward wave pattern amidst daily bullishness.

As predicted last week, some news emerged from Texas (decreased gasoline demand) and Kazakhstan (non-OPEC nations’ production cuts to stabilize oil prices), though not the type price-increasing environmental news I expected. Crude oil is an example of long-term traders taking bullish positions in based on quarterly charts amidst bearish weekly charts.

Long-term traders seem to be adding bullish positions in the euro amidst bearish weekly and daily charts. The Euro (bear) and Japanese yen (bull) start their pivots breakouts Fri.-Mon. that last into next Wed.-Fri.

Last week’s “Bears” headline described most of this week’s early market pricing; Finally, 7/10 ranges printed as of Thursday with other ranges extremely close.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3200-3170’ Low Range 3060-3061 (outlier 2933)
Buy 3100/3105 weekly put spread ahead of pullback or sell Iron Condor w/ Deltas near 0.25 strikes or sell put spread near actual week’s lows on down move into low range.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9367-9327; Low Range 9275-9247
9290 trade target printed. Daily chart is bullish. Yen breakout starts Friday to Friday.

Euro FX
High Range 1.135-1.129; Low Range 1.122-1.117
Bearish weekly range; Weekly, Daily-charts inverted hammer candlesticks. Sell weekly or monthly call spreads. 

Gold
High Range $1807-$1795; Low Range $1760-$174970
Neutral-bearish range based on daily chart. Short a call spread in the weekly toward $1770 if on Friday to Monday highs from narrow range, trending pivots, candle signal rejecting extreme high valuation.

Crude Oil
High Range $41.95-$41.05; Low Range $38.91-$38.27
Weekly chart sell signals to $35 for next two to four weeks. Quarterly chart bullish targets are at $51 for Fall; $26 support is a Fibonacci level. Weather/environmental event should reduce supply & raise land or at-sea oil prices.

Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3163-3128; Low Range 3017-2990 (outlier 2915)
Actual: 3156-2983 Bull skewed range for Fri-Mon; reason: /VX futures two-day chart; VT weekly chart bearish.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9419-9376; Low Range 9297-9281
Actual: 9374-9253
Low range extension due to two-day chart inverted hammer’s 9290 target. monthly chart is bullish like the Euro below.

Euro FX
High Range 1.133-1.129; Low Range 1.119-1.117
Actual: 1.132-1.120
Neutral-bearish weekly range; Weekly-chart inverted hammer candlestick sell triplets & three-day chart’s out-of-value, modified doji break toward 1.113-09 targets below. 

Gold
High Range $1799-$1781; Low Range $1757-$1643
Actual: $1807-$1754
Neutral-bearish range based on Daily chart. Short a call spread in the weeklies toward $1,745 on narrow range, trending pivots, candle signal in extreme valuation.

Crude Oil 
High Range $41.12-$39.92; Low Range $36.68-$35.83
Actual: $40.74-$37.50
Bearish range from weekly chart sell signals to $35 for next 2-4 weeks after immediate bounce. Quarterly chart targets remain at $43 or $51 for late summer. Fibonacci support at $26. Weather/ environmental event could reduce supply and raise land or at-sea oil prices.

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.

Note: Range calculations this week were made Wednesday evening. Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.