Jeff Greenblatt breaks down a trading opportunity in the E-micro Dow Futures.
We have been following the U.S. dollar very closely this year. Some smart people have been calling for a major decline. I’ve shown you the specific Kairos readings that have been driving the bus for months. Now it has broken support. The only that might save it for now is the 89-day low (see chart below).
There are reasons the U.S. Dollar Index is in so much trouble and not a lot of people are talking about it. On Wednesday morning it was reported in numerous places including CNBC the U.S. agreed to pay Pfizer (PFE) and German-partner BioNTech (BNTX) $1.95 billion to produce 100 million coronavirus vaccines if it proves to be safe and effective.
What does that mean? If the vaccines don’t prove to be safe and effective will these companies not be paid? It almost seems like we’ve seen this script before with the phase one China trade deal. As the Chinese consulate in Houston was closed today, how is that phase one deal working out? Thus far Pfizer shares rose more than 2%. BioNTech’s U.S. shares rose over 7%.
According to Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, “Typically it takes roughly a decade for a new vaccine to go through the various stages of development and testing. …But the next phase will be critical to demonstrate that the potential vaccines can protect against infections.”
Let's get this straight. A multibillion-dollar deal is reached for a vaccine they do not even know will work as they are short circuiting the trial phase by years. If you wonder why the dollar is in the tank, this is not how the United States became the global leader in science and technology. As it stands right now, at least one third of the population is against the idea of rushing the process of skipping animal trials and rushing the human trial process for a vaccine which has not been proven to be safe and effective. For all we know, next month the trials could fail and Pfizer will go in the tank. Where have we seen this script before? With the China trade deal of course.
Obviously, there are other reasons. We know all about the Federal Reserve printing money like it is going out of style. Have you tried to get coin change at the market? It is going out of style. But social mood is important as well. For the first time we cannot look to the stock market’s new highs and say it is a result of a rising social mood. With a record number of people unemployed as well as the social unrest, there is no way social mood could be rising. This market is a Fed creation separated from reality. That does not mean you cannot make money, just realize the rise in the market will not be felt on Main Street anytime soon.
The country is roughly 100 days away from the most important election in history at a time of historic instability. The world is watching and people are losing confidence in America’s ability to lead like she’s done throughout the 20th Century. If you want to understand social mood, there is no better place to look then the Greenback and precious metals which are finally experiencing new highs. That tells you everything you need to know.
The truth of the matter is, you can make money in this market if you are smart and disciplined. This chart of the E-micro Dow Jones futures (below) will show you exactly what that looks like. The best traders do not react by emotion, they have a plan/strategy and allow the market to come to them. If you do not know Kairos, many already know support/resistance lines and flips in polarity. Personally, I learned these concepts from reading Steve Nison’s candlestick work.
In this case there is a low which is a 63% retracement as it is 114 points up and 72 down (see levels on chart). The action goes through resistance but comes back to test it perfectly. The confirmation is moving from one low pivot to the next, it is 63 points. First, we have a 63% retracement, then we have a 63-point differential. Is it any wonder what materializes next is the best part of the move for the day? It takes a lot of practice and arduous work to come to a place to put it all together. This is what a terrific opportunity on a price chart looks like. To pull something like this off, you will need to see the tendency over and over. The idea is not to look for the repetition of 63, it could be any number. Learn how the tendency works.
As you have heard, it takes at least three weeks to form a new habit. That is because of neuroplasticity. When we perform a new behavior, it takes new neuropaths in the brain at least three weeks to grow. But one must stay with it. The only way you can fail is by quitting. This is also how one overcomes the pain and trauma of losing. One of the biggest challenges for a developing trader is the ability to forget early career losing as the skillset improves. One of the best ways to do this is to be able to look at the pattern in an entirely new way. That allows the neuropaths of fear to wither and die.
No matter what the market or economy is doing, you can be an over comer.
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