For anyone who believes, as we do, that long-term global growth lies ahead, Mosaic (MOS) is one of the surest bets you can make, explains growth stock expert Stephen Leeb, editor of Real World Investing.

The company is one of the largest producers of both phosphate- and potash-based fertilizers. It handles the entire process, from mining the phosphate and potash to producing the finished fertilizer products to distributing them to end users.

Potash and phosphates both play essential roles in growing crops and boosting yields, and Mosaic has become proficient at producing both at lower costs and with higher margins.

In coming years it’s estimated that food production will have to increase by as much as 100% from today’s levels, and fertilizers are key to that effort. Given global demographics, the long-term outlook for fertilizer demand is clearly positive, to the point where scarcities could develop by next decade.

Over the shorter term, the fertilizer industry is emerging from a nearly decade-long period of relatively low crop prices that have led to shrinking demand for fertilizers and decreased earnings for their producers.

As a result, margins in the industry have shrunk, and growth has basically dried up for major producers, including Mosaic. The company’s profits for the last 12-month period were about $1.34 a share compared to peak profits of $4.70 a share in 2008.

There obviously always are uncertainties in the crop area, with the current trade war a wild card. But under the most reasonable assumptions, Mosaic is at the cusp of a surge in profits. Current projections, which we think are reasonable, are for profits to approach $3.50 a share by 2021.

A final point is that Mosaic’s highest-margin product, the fertilizer composite MicroEssentials, now accounts for 30% of its phosphate fertilizer sales, up from less than 20% in 2015. This trend should continue, accelerating profit growth.

Mosaic should be a core holding for any investor who has at least a moderately favorable long-term view of worldwide growth. As with all commodity-related stocks, patience has been required and no doubt will continue to be a virtue. But Mosaic looks good to be approaching an inflection point where patience will pay off in a big way.

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