View from London: Mood about Equities Lifts Global Bond Market

10/19/2017 12:45 pm EST


Robert Savage

Partner & CEO, CCTrack Solutions

Forex is more a side-show with British pound hit on retail sales, Swedish krona on jobs, NZ dollar on the coalition. That leaves the euro to battle with the yen for safe-haven status as an alternative to the USD, writes Bob Savage, CEO of Track Research Thursday.

Time flies like lightning while markets are walking if not crawling to the exit on risk – as what deadlines mean for markets varies. The mainstay of twitchiness is in the euro (EUR/USD) which fell and then rallied on the day as politics meet rate differentials and defining safe-havens becomes complicated.

For Catalan, this means that Spain is proceeding with article 155 that suspends the Catalan government for its independence declaration.

For China, the PBOC Zhou warning of a “Minsky Moment” sent the Hang Seng Index (HIS) sharply lower as all equity markets feel the scaring of the 30th anniversary of Black Monday – when U.S. shares fell 25% or more.

For New Zealand, the coalition of NZ First, Labor and Greens set a new government with Jacinda Ardern at the helm and a new low for the New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD).


For the UK, as PM May prepares to talk further to EU summit, by stepping back to support EU Nationals in the UK post Brexit with an open letter.

These stories mixed with a lot of other economic news from stronger Australian jobs, to weaker Japan imports (particularly of energy) to on the nose China data – stronger retail sales, IP offset weaker investment leaving GDP at 6.8% - but not at the whisper levels of 7% that some were betting on.

The overall mood about equities is the biggest driver of markets – it’s lifting global bond markets fast, so forex is more a side-show with British pound (GBP/USD) hit on retail sales, Swedish krona (SEK/USD) on jobs, NZD on the coalition, that leaves the EUR to battle with the Japanese yen (JPY/USD) for safe-haven status as an alternative to the USD as it deals with its market fears that history rhymes.

The EUR volatility over the London session is important with the risk for 1.1880 and 1.20 tests again returning as the short-term 21-day at 1.1797 sets the pivotal buying back from the 1.1760 base.

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