Continuing to monitor higher time frames than the typical scope of these weekly articles, the Japanese yen, Euro FX, and gold are bear trades that vary in trade duration. The currencies are weekly-chart trades for end-of-month option expirations, while gold is a three-day and weekly-chart trade for weekly and monthly options. Sell a gold call spread due to the volatility status. The yen’s volatility similarly supports selling a monthly call spread, but the euro has low volatility such that its short trade favors buying a monthly put spread. Euro moving average bounce support is at 1.126, though.
Gold’s daily chart wave pattern failed to make a new high in a busted up-down-up pattern, so it may create a busted down-up-down pattern with wave one down being the deepest. Refer to daily and weekly charts to see bearish candlestick patterns/placements with in-range buyers. Target $1,378 per oz.
Last week, 80% of the directional trades we offered in weekly options were successful, although the S&P 500 strike price of 2955 was very close to the week’s low of 2955.50. This was 50¢ off from the spread going into potential profit. Prices touched about half of my projected weekly ranges again, as is typical in trending markets.
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Potential Trades)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3010-2996; Low Range 2860-2848
Long put spread 2870/75 weekly
Japanese Yen
High Range 9340-9296; Low Range 9228-9203
Short call spread 9250/9300 monthly
Euro FX
High Range 1.133-1.129; Low Range: 1.125-1.122
Buy 1125/30put spread monthly, maybe after coming bounce
Gold
High Range $1417-$1408; Low Range $1381-$1364
Sell 1390/95 call spread monthly
Crude Oil
High Range $5912-$5841; Low Range $5575-$5500
Long $5700/5750 call spread weekly
Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (Friday Jul 5); 5/10 touched ranges; 4/5 option trades’ underlying symbols surpassed chosen strikes in winning direction but do not necessarily reflect winning trades. Actual wins/losses vary due to option pricing complexities/nuances.
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2992-2968; Low Range 2904-2875
2960/55 Long put spread near early-week highs’ strikes
Actual:3006-2955.50
Japanese Yen
High Range 9393-9375; Low Range 9274-9200
Short call spreads 9325/9350 weekly, monthly expirations
Actual: 9350-9254
Euro FX
High Range 1.150-1.147; Low Range: 1.139-1.135
Buy 1142/45put spread
Actual: 1.144-1.127
Gold
High Range $1441-$1435; Low Range $1380-$1364
Sell 1405/20 call spread
Actual: $1441-$1384
Crude Oil
High Range $6196-$6094; Low Range $5761-$5688
Long 60/5950 put spread
Actual: $6028-$5604
