Currencies Plan a Tradeable Countertrend Rally

Currencies plan a tradeable countertrend rally, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.

Markets are little changed from extreme highs for indices, food commodities, and crude oil, except currencies are on technical supports. An overall 3-5-month pullback, albeit seemingly unlikely amidst inflation goals, remains my prediction. If markets fall, weekly/monthly pivots should catch prices, initially.

Also, little changed are my continued predictions of a geopolitical conflict to start in an icy place and, later, possible earthquakes related to two consecutive, intense hurricane and flooding seasons' forces (2021-predicted 2022) on tectonic plates from storm flooding weight and directly on the seabed floor from ocean waves—an arguable hypothesis connects hurricanes to future earthquakes in computer modeling. Potentially resultant tremors can occur months to years later. Be weather-prepared (have a "go bag" with a light, helmet, whistle, radio, food/water/wipes, first aid kit, workboots, hatchet, etc.) in 2021 starting now, according to meteorologists in the event of tornadoes, hurricanes, and flood events. 

My last article recognized world markets as being at extreme prices before markets went down. Gasoline futures did fulfill my prediction that they could "go sideways with an unexpected drop," but "a lightning-flash, out-of-range crude oil price of $44/barrel" actually took 3 days, falling only $10/barrel to $57, making me half right/unsure. Nine of ten projected ranges printed as of April 4, 2021, with the missed range being close. I traded my own numbers while placing day trades on Thursday, March 25, buying S&P futures near the day's low (3843) when price was in my projected two-week low target reversal zone (3854-3833).

Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written Sunday Night, April 4, 2021)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4089-4063; Low Range 3972-3948
Range-expanding expectations bi-directionally. Weekly Pivot: 3998, Monthly Pivot 3904, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225;

Japanese Yen
High Range 9152-9122; Low Range 9035-8990

Bullish ranges from 80-month moving average support in trending mathematic conditions. Traders can take trade signals toward 9145 Monthly Pivot. Yearly pivot .009498 printed and may pull price from above

Euro FX
High Range 1.188-1.184; Low Range 1.175-1.166

Bullish ranges with bullish bounce off 50-week moving average and Yearly pivot: 1.174 (now printed); traders can take bullish signals toward 1.188 Monthly Pivot zone.

Gold
High Range $1768-$1740; Low Range $1713-1691

Bullish ranges in trending-pivot character with soft high targets from 20-Month and 80-Week Moving Average supports.

Of note, the 20-, 50-week moving averages crossed over bearishly, so the short-term countertrend reverse trade signal is bullish until the bearish Quarterly chart assumes market control. I anticipate these price events, can't guarantee either. Expert wave traders/hedgers only on Gold, unless willing to seek short trade until Fall 2021 with forceful stops runs against the trade until Q3,4 seasonality/religious gold buying. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above, while the 20-quarter moving average at $1,447 pulls from below. 

Crude Oil
High Range $6485-6315; Low Range $5987-5833

Neutral range in trending pivot math; An attempt to reach the Yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp price thrust down to an upwards-revised $51, $46.14 that quickly recovers is possible near April 19, May 25 as Fibonacci-calculation autotargets from my programs. No guarantees of accuracy/prices, as it seems too strong for my $44 premonition and June-Oct. make more technical timing sense on the monthly chart. $46 is the 20-month moving average with many key levels between there/current price. Experts/hedgers only here short until Fall 2021 against key bullish supports (see Gold above).

Prior Predicted Ranges (Written Saturday, March 13 for March 14-31, 2021)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4001-3965; Low Range 3854-3833

Neutral-bearish rangebound expectations. Weekly Pivot: 3895 support/valuation may create a 3997-3880 actual range, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225
Actual: 4038-3843

Japanese Yen
High Range 9347-9275; Low Range 9112-9081

Moderately bullish ranges from moving average supports in trending mathematic conditions likely to exceed my ranges. Yearly pivot .009498 has been hit and may pull price from above to re-print
Actual: 9232-9109

Euro FX
High Range 1.210-1.203; Low Range 1.193-1.185

Neutral ranges with bullish bounce off moving average supports; Yearly pivot: 1.174
Actual: 1.201-1.178

Gold
High Range $1768-$1740; Low Range $1714-1690

Bullish ranges in trending-pivots character; 20-Month & 80-Week Moving Average supports below near $1700. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above.
Actual: $1754-1678

Crude Oil
High Range $6804-6703; Low Range $6325-6068

Neutral-wide range in trending pivot math may trade beyond 1+/- standard deviation of $3.25 to $3.75 but, if just-over 1SD prints, I expect a high-side skew near $6724-6340; An attempt to reach the Yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp price thrust down to $44.33. $44.10 that quickly recovers is possible near March 20, April 19, May 25 as Fibonacci-calculation autotargets from my programs. No guarantees of accuracy/prices.
Actual: $66.40-57.25

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.