Markets in Trending Math Led to Breakout Trades

11/16/2020 10:00 am EST


Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor,

Markets in trending math led to breakout trades; S&P futures remain directionally mixed, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.

Trend-following system traders have my permission to join trends in currencies, indices, oil, and gold. Range/pivot conditions supporting these trade types should persist into November's close.

Sunday night's S&P futures opening gap higher agrees with market internals that foster rally strength. Daily chart reversal candlesticks in trending math conditions for the next two weeks spark the idea that a downside trade (3500, 3438) could get momentum, and the same reversal candlesticks' bullish closures show that buyers can create upside momentum, too. 

Bullish closures on bear candles often postpone bear traders' order placement until a safer, higher-priced place. Volume signals due to large trader selling at current levels exist. Some of my reasons for a presumed bad news release later this week are no longer relevant, but such a news-related price drop here would set markets up technically for dip-buying holiday rallies. Therefore, my best opinion is that trend joiners create this week's highs made early, while expert bears await a better high reversal for a higher-low target than my prior 3141 estimate.  

My article on November 1 mentioned "bearish reversal bars" in Japanese yen futures offering a narrow-range breakout with .009515 as "my first lower price target." Price then exceeded it and my lower range. Seven of 10 ranges printed as of Sunday, November 15, 2020, with other ranges being very close.  

Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Sunday Night, November 15. 2020)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3670-3640; Low Range 3536-3465
Bearish opinion due to daily-chart candlestick patterns, associated volume spread analysis; weekly highs made early are more probable, but trending math supports far-off pricing even if bullish. Trending breakdowns likely to exceed my range toward 3438; 3141, 3078 targets are for later in November, if at all. Weekly chart doji breakdown/monthly candles in effect until December.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9655-9600; Low Range 9510-9438
Expanded ranges due to trending-momentum mathematic conditions and bear bias for a third wave down. Prices may exceed my ranges in current context of trending math.

Euro FX
High Range 1.195-1.187; Low Range 1.175-1.166
Neutral-bearish ranges based on two-day chart; higher and lower targets are in effect.  

High Range $1915-$1903; Low Range $1879-1863 
Neutral-bearish ranges based on monthly-chart bearish candlestick patterns/valuations down to $1,775/ounce target. (disclosure: while most of my trades are in stock indices futures, I am still in this $1890/1885-strikes short call spread bear trade to November 20 expiration that has been profitable/unprofitable many times. I'll happily exit with any profits if price falls under $1885 and warmly remember a family psychotherapist who warned anyone to stay out of oil/gold who thinks they must actively trade).

Crude Oil
High Range $4399-4235; Low Range $3970-3824
Neutral-mixed directional range but trending pivot math will lead to wide-range, trend-joining moves.  

Prior Predicted Ranges (for November 15-November 30, 2020)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3360-3341; Low Range 3225-3195
Bullish week opinion: Breakdowns then lead to 3141, 3078 later in November, 2960 as December-January target derived from moving averages. Weekly chart doji breakdown/monthly candles in effect until December.
Actual: 3668-3243

Japanese Yen
High Range 9591-9571; Low Range 9518-9485
Neutral ranges, slight bear bias. Wide-range trending, breakdown move may exceed my ranges in context of trending math.
Actual: 9696-9465

Euro FX
High Range 1.175-1.173; Low Range 1.158-1.154
Neutral ranges based on 1.172 monthly pivot overhead, resistance levels also in effect.
Actual: 1.192-1.161

High Range $1921-$1901; Low Range $1846-1825 
Neutral-bearish ranges based on trending pivot math, monthly-chart bearish candlestick patterns/valuations with a light short trade signal down to $1,775/ounce target. (disclosure: I am still in this short call spread bear trade to Thanksgiving expiration, currently profiting $20/option spread)
Actual: $1966-1848

Crude Oil
High Range $3800-3695; Low Range $3400-3287
Neutral-mixed directional range skew with widened low range; Multiple pivots continue to support
Actual: $4306-3365

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.

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