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Experts on Markets & Economy
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•Nationally Syndicated Finance Columnist (Tribune Content Agency)
Renowned Growth Investor & Champion for Individual Investors
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President and Co-Founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., DBA ToniHansen.com
Why do traders place so much emphasis on forecasts and why does the market react when these estimations miss the mark?
For example, for crude oil to have value it must be refined into individual petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and liquified petroleum gas. Therefore, crude oil's worth is correlative to the economics of each of its underlying derivatives, approximately sixteen in all. Speculative estimates of weekly inflows and outflows of crude oil and its numerous byproducts is specious, i.e., seemingly plausible, but actually deficient.
The reason for this is that there are numerous factors that affect price volatility. For example, crude oil derivatives are spread across five distinct regional markets, each of which has discrete dynamics. Further muddling any forecasts, seasonal volatility and many other supply and demand fluctuations need to be taken into account.
This session will show the savvy trader how to cut through the noise of readily available market data, extract what is instrumental, and leverage this output to develop robust trading strategies.
MoneyShow.com’s renowned market experts help you go beyond the latest market news to unravel the effects of geopolitical events on the global economy, analyze the current market environment to identify hot spots for potential investments, and discern the long-term market and economic trends and opportunities around the world.
There are no sure-shot techniques for market forecasting and analysis. If one were developed, it wouldn’t work for long, since as everyone applied it, its foundation would change significantly. There’s an excess of data in the world today, so the trick is to spot the one or two key variables in a specific time. They could be Fed policy, consumer behavior, foreign trade wars, etc. Any these factors could change, sometimes several times, throughout the year. That’s why it’s important to keep up with market news and the ever-changing conditions. For a framework to add value, it must entail market-moving events that have a good chance of occurring, but are not yet within the consensus.
Research has consistently shown that Investors are more surprised by bear than bull markets, and economic and financial market downturns unfold faster than upswings. Successful investing entails studying varying perspectives, then folding in history, experiences, hunches—and great timing. The goal is to identify the significant but undiscounted aspects of the outlook. This is where the true opportunities for investors lie and where our experts excel.
We feature more than just stock market news. Our expert contributors are renowned investing and trading veterans who have survived—and thrived—in all kinds of market conditions and they share in-depth intelligence about the markets and the catalysts driving them to help you chart your path to growth and prosperity in any market environment.