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Are Markets Positioned for a Recession?

Released on Wednesday, May 3, 2023MARKETS
After two consecutive (Q1, Q2) negative GDP reports and the FOMC increasing the Funds rate by 0.75% in June and July 2022, many strategists believed a "Hard Landing" recession had already begun or would by year-end. Jim Welsh wrote there wouldn't be a recession in 2022. Now, after two consecutive quarters of positive GDP (Q3, Q4) and strong data at the beginning of 2023, many strategists believe there won't be a recession and are calling it a 'No Landing'. If a recession materializes after mid-year, the question is: Are markets positioned for a recession?

Jim Welsh
Macro Tides, Macro and Technical Strategist

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