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The inflation-protected bond market started in 1997 when the US Treasury issued TIPS. TIPS have limitations. First, they are bonds so they will absolutely lose money given their duration risk when yields move higher. Second, the only measure of inflation within TIPS is a single index: the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI is just one index, like the Dow Jones, is one index. It's not the only way to measure inflation. One-third of CPI is RENT. Rent is not relevant for many as a measure of inflation. Inflation is everywhere in our day-to-day lives. Do you think hiking policy rates will matter? Is the cause of inflation directly related to fiscal spending and money supply coupled with the shortages in the labor market and supply chain disruptions around the world? Will higher US policy rates mean no more chip crisis, or will it bring more truck drivers or end Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
Nancy Davis is the founder and managing partner of Quadratic Capital Management, which she founded in 2013. Ms. Davis began her career at Goldman Sachs where she spent nearly 10 years, the last seven with the proprietary trading group where she rose to become the head of credit, derivatives, and OTC trading. She has been the recipient of numerous industry recognitions. Ms. Davis was named by Barron's as one of the "100 Most Influential Women in US Finance" and Institutional Investor called her a "Rising Star of Hedge Funds." The Hedge Fund Journal tapped her as one of "Tomorrow's Titans."
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