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Realized vs Future Inflation

Released on Thursday, December 1, 2022BONDS
The inflation-protected bond market started in 1997 when the US Treasury issued TIPS. TIPS have limitations. First, they are bonds so they will absolutely lose money given their duration risk when yields move higher. Second, the only measure of inflation within TIPS is a single index: the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI is just one index, like the Dow Jones, is one index. It's not the only way to measure inflation. One-third of CPI is RENT. Rent is not relevant for many as a measure of inflation. Inflation is everywhere in our day-to-day lives. Do you think hiking policy rates will matter? Is the cause of inflation directly related to fiscal spending and money supply coupled with the shortages in the labor market and supply chain disruptions around the world? Will higher US policy rates mean no more chip crisis, or will it bring more truck drivers or end Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

Nancy Davis
Quadratic Capital Management, LLC, Managing Partner and CIO

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