We see real confusion among businesses that has suddenly made them very pessimistic about their future. Consumers and investors, too. Should you be buying? Here’s my take, notes Michael Murphy, editor of New World Investor.
The University of Michigan Consumer Survey recently showed a sudden jump in those expecting business conditions in one year to be bad or uncertain, accompanied by a collapse in those expecting conditions to be good.
The establishment economists are equally pessimistic. For the ZEW Financial Market Survey, up to 300 experts from German banks, insurance companies, and financial departments of selected corporations have been interviewed about their assessments and forecasts for important international financial market data every month since 1991. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is a leading indicator for the German economy and probably reflects the sentiment of most countries.
As we know, retail investors have also been saying they’re worried or bearish. The CNN Fear & Greed Index bottomed at 3 (up to 21 recently, still Extreme Fear) and AAII bullish sentiment bottomed at 19.3% (up to 25.4% from there). But what are they doing? They’re buying stocks.
Meanwhile, Bank of America said their clients were net buyers of $8 billion worth of stock during the week of the initial tariff announcements. That was the fourth-largest weekly inflow in Bank of America’s data going back to 2008. Deutsche Bank also showed global equity inflows of nearly $50 billion, the largest amount in 2025, including $31 billion flowing into US stocks.
As a contrarian, I would rather see them selling stocks. But while historically retail traders not buying the dip is a reliable sign of equity market bottoms, it’s not a necessary condition for every market bottom. Sometimes they get it right.
These periods of extreme volatility are difficult. I feel your pain. But in the long-run, periods of extreme volatility have led to strong returns.
