The announced US/UK trade deal yesterday will be a good test case for all the other deals in terms of the scope and breadth of it. Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points as expected to 4.25%, observes Peter Boockvar, editor of The Boock Report.
Regarding the deal, are there going to be widespread declines in trade barriers and tariffs, the hoped-for goal? Or will this be a narrow deal instead, with a few things here and there?
At the BOE, it was a 5-4 vote. Two policymakers wanted a cut of 50 bps and two preferred no change. Their committee continues to be an interesting mix of opinions/dissents, unlike the Fed which tends to coalesce around a consensus most of the time.
What happens next? The BOE set out two possible scenarios: 1) The global trade situation leads to higher prices due to the weaker supply of things or 2) Demand falters more than supply does and prices fall. Thus, “Monetary policy is not on a pre-set path.”
With respect to US rate cut odds – post the Fed statement and Chairman Jay Powell presser which went with a neutral stance as I suspected – there is still almost a 100% chance of three rate cuts priced in this year. The Swedish Riksbank and the Norges Bank each kept their policy rates unchanged as expected.
