High Probability Trading
12/17/2007 12:00 am EST
Even traders with limited experience start to realize that we are not trying to capture every market move. We want to improve our odds and reduce our frustration by filtering, for high-probability trades.
The combination of trend and Fibonacci techniques can provide powerful signals for higher probability trading. We already know that trendlines have some validity, and so do Fibonacci levels. Combine the two, to improve your chances.
The following charts are the USD/British pound GBP. First, an older daily chart. I have drawn a red down-sloping trendline joining the two recent swing highs.
The chart has moved down since early September , making a down-trend of consecutive "waves" with lower swing highs and lower swing lows. There were several opportunities to take advantage of the down-move. In this tutorial we will focus on the October 6th opportunity.
In a down-trend we want to short those swing highs, and take profits on swing lows. We don't want to short every time we **think** we have a swing high. If you have tried that, you know about whipsaw and fake-outs already haha. We only want the best trades, those which are more likely to succeed. So how do we choose an optimum entry point?
Our odds are improved if we have a swing high near a down-sloping trendline (in red on the chart). Markets tend to reverse at Fibonacci levels. So if we have a significant resistance level near a trendline we have an even better chance of success.
The next chart shows the GBP with Fibonacci resistance levels. Notice the "SK Resistance" level. This represents an area of significant resistance, with a higher probability of a reversal.
If you are new to Fibonacci, those studies look like a confusing series of colored lines. Learning how to use these Fibonacci studies, and which of them are stronger (higher probability), is really easy! I have made two video seminars that explain this. Click for details
That "SK Resistance" level, coinciding with a trendline is an optimum shorting zone. If the market reaches that area (we can't be sure it will), and if the market resists there, we want to take a short position. Once the resistance materializes, it will be difficult for the market to move against us.
Most of us are not trading the daily chart, but we can use the longer-term charts to find **powerful** trends and Fibonacci levels. The next chart is a 60-minute chart. I choose 60-minutes because it clearly shows when resistance has materialized. You may prefer a 30-minute or five-minute chart.
The following 60-minute chart shows how the pound rallied to the SK resistance level, and the trendline. It rallied over those, tested them briefly, then retreated. There are several ways to determine whether resistance has materialized. I have some very powerful techniques for that purpose. However we want this tutorial to focus on some basics. So for now we will use the obvious breaking of the rising trend as our trigger.
During that rally upward, the 60-minute chart has a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Once we broke the highest swing low (see the last bar on the above chart), we know that up-trend has expired. So we want to start shorting rallies and take profits on dips as shown on the next chart (60-minute chart).
Notice how the market broke down, and never looked back! That is what happens when you combine trendlines with Fibonacci techniques. The best trades go your way and keep on going. That is a characteristic of higher-probability trading.
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by Neal Hughes of FibMarkets.com
Information, charts, or examples contained in this lesson are for illustration and educational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. We do not and cannot offer investment advice. For further information please read our disclaimer.