Stocks are hanging in despite a rise in oil tied to foundering Middle East deal talks. Gold and silver are mixed, while Treasuries are lower and the dollar is flat.
Iran responded to the US’ memorandum of understanding over the weekend – and President Trump promptly rejected the counteroffer. Iran reportedly wanted the US to end its port blockade and release frozen assets, while also allowing Iran to maintain partial control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices rose modestly on the news – though for now, the US hasn’t resumed attacking Iran. Trump is heading to China for a state visit with Xi Jinping later this week. The war will be a key topic, as will unsettled trade relations between the two countries. So far this year, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has rallied 8.4% while the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has dipped 2.7%.
Source: FactSet
Speaking of the S&P 500, its recent rally is starting to thin out beyond the tech sector. Only 53% of the stocks in the index were trading above their 200-day moving average last week, down from 58% a week earlier. But bulls continue to note that strong corporate profit growth is underpinning the move. Some 84% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations in the Q1 reporting season. That’s the most since 2021. Profit is up 27.7% year-over-year, also the most since 2021.
Ahead of potential mega-offerings from some of the biggest names in technology, smaller companies continue to mint money in public markets. Cerebras Systems Inc. is an AI chipmaker set for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) this week. It just raised the projected deal’s size by two million shares – and the anticipated price range to $150 to $160 from $115 to $125. Companies have raised $18.9 billion in the IPO market so far this year, up 82% from the same period in 2025, according to Bloomberg.
