Trading is not a game of exacts. Perfectionists need not apply. Markets are made up of many irration...
12/19/2003 12:00 am EST
Here we offer a four-pack of picks, with a wide variety of lesser-known gold plays - from trading specialist Mark Leibovit, global investment expert Vivian Lewis, the top stock pickers at Marketocracy, and global economist Mark Skousen. Here are their latest favorites.
"Folks, we're only beginning a multi-year upmove in gold," says Mark Leibovit, editor of the top-ranked trading service, VRTrader. "Surprises are still to the upside in this dynamic market. At some point, gold will cross $560 an ounce on its way back to $800. It may be six months, 12 months, or even may be two years, but it is coming." Some of the gold positions in his trading portfolio are Kinross Gold (KGC NYSE), with a target of $10.30 and a stop at $6.50; Goldstar Resources (GSS ASE), with a target of $11 and a stop at $5, and Taseko Mines (TKOCF NASDAQ), with a target of $2.25 and a stop at $0.75. He also notes, " Watch the South Africans as a possible catchup play against other gold stocks, as the South African Rand reverses direction. Buy Durban Roodepoort Deep Ltd. (DROOY NASDAQ) with a target of $3.50 and a stop at $1.80."
"Being a bargain hunter from way back, I recommend our cheapest gold and precious metals shares," says Vivian Lewis, editor of Global Investing. "I had previously forecast that we would see $400 gold by the end of the first quarter of 2004. That forecast came true quicker than I expected. We have current buy ratings on Johnson Matthey (JMPLY NASDAQ) Sons of Gwalia, (SOGAY NASDAQ), and Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI NYSE). All three of the companies suffer from being from countries with relatively high costs (Britain, Australia, and South Africa) while gold and platinum are priced in the sinking US dollar. But if you believe, as I do, that the price of gold is headed upward, these shares will recover soon."
In addition to its top-performing funds, Marketocracy has expanded its services to a monthly newsletter, MarketScope, and a trading service, Stock Alerts, which highlights stocks that are seeing an increase in buy among its "best" stock pickers vs. selling by the "rest." Says Ken Kam, "One situation where the best investors are buying and the rest are selling is Randgold Resources Ltd. (GOLD NASDAQ). The company is engaged in surface gold mining, exploration and related activities in the country of West Africa. The best investors under our coverage increased their holdings by 23%, while the rest decreased holdings by 11%. After the best added 23% to their existing position, GOLD became a top 5% holding in the ‘best portfolio’."
"Gold is still looking positive," says Mark Skousen, editor ofForecasts & Strategies. "We continue to recommend Newmont (NEM NYSE), AngloGold (AU NYSE), and Freeport McMoRan (FCX NYSE), a good copper/gold play. We want to keep everything in our portfolio as we head into the year-end. Meanwhile, an indirect play on gold is Collectors Universe (CLCT NASDAQ) has been on a wild ride lately. I've been told that a major mutual fund is accumulating large positions in CLCT as an undervalued way to play gold. I agree. Keep buying. CLCT could hit $10 a share within a few months."
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