Major Market Ranges for Week of Nov. 17: Trending Markets, Bullish Euro

11/15/2019 10:15 am EST

Focus: TECHNICAL

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Next week’s predicted major market ranges from Trevor Smith.

Recurring trending breakout setups are this coming week’s theme in the still-toppy S&P 500 futures, Japanese yen futures (off lows), the euro (off lows), and crude oil. Of these, the euro presents the cleanest, freshest trade signal, which is the green hammer low candlestick on the daily chart.

The euro’s cascading down move changed shape somewhat into a rounded bottom that lacks supportive volume surges but does have support.  I skewed my weekly range projection bullishly but with room for a lower low test.

The euro trade is actually a short put calendar monthly option spread on a price throwback entry to allow some extra profit potential from time decay and profit from selling symbol strike-price volatility ranking and overall Implied Volatility. Actually, the 1.105, 1.107 strike prices above have the biggest volatility differential (.07% versus typical .03%) to exploit in December options. Delta values in the December option chain show about a 48-38% chance of the 1.105/1.107 strikes’ printing,

In this closing week, seven of 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of late Thursday night. Four out of five option spread trades’ underlying symbols this week exceeded strike prices in winning directions, and the long reversal Japanese yen trade from this week nails the low in advance and uses monthly expirations for the next month. As a current winning trade, traders could exit all/partial yen short put spreads, and/or add to it/reload if my anticipated throwback down looks bullish. The bullish euro option spread trade also uses monthly expirations into December.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500

High Range:  3130-3119; Low Range 3085-3075

Buy 3110/3105, Weekly put spreads; Rationale: Bearish/negatively divergent understudies still, price at extreme values over a multitude of high reversal pivots; weekly pivot/range midpoints 3100 below

Japanese Yen

High Range 9283-9260; Low Range 9198-9165  

Sell 9200/9225 weekly call spread; buy 9175/9200 call spread monthly on lows. Rationale: bullish 9320 overhead six-week target from presumed FXY 50-week/200-week moving average crossover; price throwback gives energy for higher pricing. 9214 weekly pivots below

Euro FX

High Range 1.109-1.106; Low Range 1.102-1.100

Sell 1.105/1.1075 call spread weeklies; reverse position sell 1102/11075 put spread monthlies on lows Rationale: Daily chart hammer candlestick on monthly camarilla pivot support with 1.113 as the 20-week moving average overhead pulls price up; retest throwback to weekly pivot leads into monthlies options trade

Gold

High Range $1,488-$1,479; Low Range $1,461-$1,453

Sell $1465/1470 weekly call spread, then sell $1465/60 put spread weekly. Rationale: weekly pivot below $1,463; bullish daily-3Day charts but bearish monthly chart; consider gold avoidance or trade lightly bullish into December, in case monthly chart collapses. $1,470 is range midpoint above.

Crude Oil

High Range $5857-$5782; Low Range $5637-$5570

Sell $57/5750 call spread on upticks and sell $5650/$57 put spread weekly Friday. Rationale: Bearish three-day charts but long narrow range setup means crude oil could be $73 or $37 on any morning with halted trading. Use monthly strangles if believing big breakout is within weeks away. Trending monthly/weekly pivots means join the breakout. Will I be driving the Prius or the Lincoln Livery Town Car more into holidays?

(Note: This article is published mid-day on Fridays and focuses on weekly options expiring the following Friday but may include monthly options or 2-week calendar/diagonal option spreads at times. I consider my week’s range accuracy from Fri. p.m. publishing until next Fri. a.m. as Trevor’s week for purposes of being aligned with potential weekly option trades placed Fri-Wed.)

Last Week’s Projected Ranges vs.  actuals as of Thu. 9:00 p.m. CST

E-mini S&P 500

High Range: 3117-3108; Low Range 3049-3028

Actual: 3109-3072

Buy 3070/3065, 3065/3060 Weekly put spreads; Rationale: Bearish/negatively divergent understudies, price at extreme values over a multitude of high reversal pivots

Japanese Yen

High Range 9262-9232; Low Range 9160-9128

Actual: 9254-9152 

Sell 9175/9150 put spread 9200/9175 if it rallies before readers see this using weekly/monthly options to trade toward weekly pivot, bullish reversal signs in upward-adjusted weekly range
that may continue downwards

Euro FX

High Range 1.115-1.111; Low Range 1.106-1.103

Actual: 1108-1100

Sell 1.105/1.1 weeklies put spread. Rationale: bullish divergence in understudies; weekly pivot overhead  

Gold

High Range $1496-$1486; Low Range $1465-$1452

Actual: $1475.5-$1446

Sell $1475/1470 weekly put spread. Rationale: weekly pivot overhead but trade small, as it broke to lower low from longstanding narrow range in breakout attempt that may continue downwards

Crude Oil

High Range $5820-$5724; Low Range $5600-$5515

Actual: $5779-$5576

Buy $57/5650 put spread weekly. Rationale: Weekly range midpoint below in bearish technical on daily chart with bear candle series line on volume spikes.

Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

Related Articles on TECHNICAL

Keyword Image
E-mini Buy Climax Testing Tops
12/02/2019 9:40 am EST

The E-mini S&P 500 is breaking above the top of the weekly bull channel and it is near the top o...

Keyword Image
A Perfect Indicator?
11/19/2019 9:53 am EST

This indicator is signaling a decline in the S&P 500 of 5% or more in the next week, reports Ash...