Market ranges for this week from Trevor Smith.
Markets have been trending, breakout math for the coming week, except there is a twist. Currencies are trying to make a short-term low reversal, with the Japanese yen’s positive divergence presenting a stronger technical case for a rally. Conversely, S&P 500 futures’ negative divergence makes the rally less believable and a downside move more likely. I’ve been wrong about this for four consecutive weeks.
Joining trends and/or breakouts this week aligns a trading approach with projected math, if trend joining is your skillset. A trader could draw lines around Friday’s or this week’s highs/lows in crude oil, the euro, or gold and join price movements beyond the lines.
Last week, five of 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of late Thu. night, although many range projections were extremely close to actual price range extremes. The euro short trade was a great winning trade beyond my target price/time duration.
This Week’s Predicted Ranges
E-mini S&P 500
High Range: 3162-3152; Low Range 3132-3122 (3060 outlier)
Buy weekly or monthly expiration 3145/3140 put spread if accepting 3138, next week’s weekly pivot, as fair value underneath current price.
Japanese Yen
High Range 9200-9170; Low Range 9116-9090
Buy 9150/9125 weekly expiration put spread if accepting next week’s pivot above is more fair value; price on multi timeframe moving average cluster support; four-hour chart hammer low
Euro FX
High Range 1.107-1.105; Low Range 1.101-1.099
No official trade. Sell weekly expiration put spread up to 1.1025 weekly pivot/range midpoint one if reversal signals emerge as strong as present in Yen
Gold
High Range $1480-$1474; Low Range $1457-$1452
No official trade because bullish weekly chart contradicts bearish monthly chart. $1465/70 strikes to sell either a call spread (bearish trade) or sell short a put spread (bullish trade); as both could win.
Crude Oil
High Range $5948-$5830; Low Range $5695-$5585
Sell $58/5850 weekly expiration call spread, as range midpoint is $5750 below price; short-term bearishness sets stage for monthly doji breakout higher into $60s-Jan/Feb short put spread trade idea
(Note: This article is published mid-day on Fridays and focuses on weekly options expiring the following Friday but may include monthly options or 2-week calendar/diagonal option spreads at times. I consider my week’s range accuracy from Fri. a.m. publishing until next Fri. a.m. as Trevor’s week for purposes of being aligned with potential weekly option trades placed Fri-Wed.)
Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges:
E-mini S&P 500
High Range: 3136-3119; Low Range 3092-3077 (possible outlier event= 3058, if not Friday)
Actual: 3155-3116
Japanese Yen
High Range 9254-9235; Low Range 9190-9180
Actual: 9229-9130
Euro FX
High Range 1.112-1.109; Low Range 1.105-1.103
Actual:1.111-1.100
Gold
High Range $1482-$1475; Low Range $1459-$1450
Actual: $1473-$1453
Crude Oil
High Range $6112-$5991; Low Range $5655-$5574
Actual: $5874-$5721
See More analysis from Trevor here
Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.
