Candlestick patterns suggest bears are on the yen, while S&P bulls overpower bears, initially, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
The positive starting point for November is that CBOE VIX (VIX) futures and US Indices symbols present a good look for bulls in terms of candlestick patterns, volume analysis, Bollinger Band positions on daily charts, and 20-week moving average supports. Bears are present, as seen by Nasdaq futures closing below its opening price (sellers). My first news-related bear targets are post-election, mid-late-November/December 3141, 3078 moving average S&P futures prices.
If my idea for a rally to 3351 and my 3200 approximate two-week range low are wrong, and 3141 prints this week, then 3078 applies later in November's news events, followed by 2960.50, which is the 2020 yearly pivot most likely to print again in December 2020-January 2021. It is the most likely place the swing move will end. Due to recent wide-range price expansion, I expect the next few months to display measured market moves downward with bullish bounces from sideways pivot math that will favor such reversals and buyers all the way down.
Japanese yen futures feature daily-chart candlestick doubles (bearish reversal bars); it also offers bear traders a narrow-range breakout, trending weekly/quarterly math supporting a wider range price move, and a high position in several Bollinger Bands to further increase downside probabilities and strike distance. My first lower price target is .009515, and hand calculations show the likely end of the move to be either .009308 or .009205 near November's turn or the year's turn. The countertrade, limited view of a three-day chart sees reversal rallies.
My last article on October 18 mentioned the S&P futures price could "test the 3385 technical support cluster underneath current price" before it did. Seven of 10 ranges printed as of Sunday, November 1, 2020.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Sunday Night, October 18. 2020)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3360-3341; Low Range 3225-3195
Bullish week opinion; Breakdowns then lead to 3141, 3078 later in November, 2960 as December-January target derived from moving averages. Weekly chart doji breakdown/monthly candles in effect until December.
Japanese Yen
High Range 9591-9571; Low Range 9518-9485
Neutral ranges, slight bear bias. Wide-range trending, breakdown move may exceed my ranges in context of trending math.
Euro FX
High Range 1.175-1.173; Low Range 1.158-1.154
Neutral ranges based on 1.172 monthly pivot overhead, resistance levels also in effect.
Gold
High Range $1921-$1901; Low Range $1846-1825
Neutral-bearish ranges based on trending pivot math, monthly-chart bearish candlestick patterns/valuations with a light short trade signal down to $1,775/ounce target. (disclosure: I am still in this short call spread bear trade to Thanksgiving expiration, currently profiting $20/option spread)
Crude Oil
High Range $3800-3695; Low Range $3400-3287
Neutral-mixed directional range skew with widened low range; Multiple pivots continue to support.
Prior Predicted Ranges (for October 16-November 1, 2020)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3517-3501; Low Range 3415-3395
Bearish opinion & skewed ranges due to a wave pattern embedded within candlestick pattern and a group of moving averages/pivots below near 3390; Breakdowns below 3431 could lead to 3385, as a wide-range low target.
Actual: 3496-3225
Japanese Yen
High Range 9545-9520; Low Range 9446-9405
Neutral-bearish ranges based on moving averages below current price. Wide-range down move may exceed my ranges in context of trending math.
Actual: 9618-9461
Euro FX
High Range 1.189-1.183; Low Range 1.166-1.161
Neutral ranges based on two-day chart’s 1.169, 1.176 moving average support/resistance levels, respectively, in trending-math breakout conditions.
Actual: 1.189-1.165
Gold
High Range $1953-$1937; Low Range $1891-1875
Neutral-expanded ranges based on narrow ranges on multiple time frames, weekly-chart moving average support, and monthly-chart bearish candlestick patterns/valuations with a light short trade signal down to $1,775/ounce target. (disclosure: I am in this short call spread bear trade to Thanksgiving expiration)
Actual: $1936-1859
Crude Oil
High Range $4230-4167; Low Range $3980-3850
Neutral-mixed directional range skew; Breakout trade wave-three up at $40.80, 41.52; $38.91 breakdowns may print $38.40; traders can narrow my widened low range if bullish. Pivots support.
Actual: $4190-3492
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
