Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL), which is working on a number of central nervous system (CNS) diseases, more than doubled in 2020 on more good trial results in Parkinson's Disease Dementia (PDD) and Rett syndrome, notes Tom Bishop, growth stock expert and editor of BI Research.
Meanwhile, its Phase 2b/3 Alzheimer's trial is nearing full enrollment, and recently reported Phase 2 PDD success on dementia was encouraging in this regard. In fact, the PDD trial results were accepted and presented at an Alzheimer's conference.
Clinical trial results to date for Anavex 2-73 (oral) in all of these diseases have been consistently very positive. For example, in a Phase 2a Alzheimer's trial those given the high dose of Anavex 2-73 saw very minimal decline in scores on the mini mental state exam and activities of daily living after 148 weeks as compared to a considerable (normal) decline in those on the low dose.
Nothing on the market today can come even close to this. $10 billion is a reasonable estimate for sales of an Alzheimer's drug that actually works (nothing on the market really does so far).
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And if the shares traded at just 1-2 times revenues (low for this industry), that would be a market cap of $10-$20 billion, not counting success with Rett or PDD. And even using 50% more shares than are outstanding today, that works out to $100 to $200 a share.
Of course the company would be taken over long before that if the later stage trials continue as successfully as they have to date. So the company just has to continue to table data in late stage trials that is comparable to that reported so far.
Also noteworthy, the Michael J. Fox Foundation (for Parkinson's) has recently agreed to provide funding of $1 million for an imaging-focused Parkinson's Disease trial of Anavex 2-73 (previously the MJF Foundation sponsored a preclinical trial with encouraging results.).
The impact on Parkinson's Disease symptoms from the Parkinson's Disease Dementia trail are also pending. Lot's of potential here.
