Nebius Group NV (NBIS) enters 2026 as one of the most compelling AI infrastructure stories in the market. The company continues to benefit from exceptionally strong demand for GPU computers, highlighted by two major multi-year agreements, suggests Matthew Timpane, editor at Schaeffer’s Investment Research.
The Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) contract, valued at $17 billion – $19 billion through 2031, provided long-term revenue visibility and confirmed Nebius’ ability to deliver hyperscaler-grade systems at a wider measure. Soon after, the company secured a $3 billion agreement with Meta Platforms Inc. (META). The takeaway is straightforward: demand is not the constraint, capacity is.
This matters because Nebius is expanding capacity much faster than originally planned. Management raised its 2026 contracted power outlook to 2.5 gigawatts (GW), up from prior expectations of 1 GW. Since 1 GW can translate into roughly $10 billion in revenue potential, this increase points to a much steeper growth trajectory, as more connected power comes online.
Facilities in the UK and Israel are already pre-sold ahead of activation, and Nebius continues to attract AI-native startups and enterprises. Enterprise adoption remains early, but with the market already near $37 billion and growing rapidly, Nebius is positioned to capture a meaningful share as costs fall and models scale. There can be significant upside if management can increase expected capacity once again in 2026.
From a technical perspective, Nebius stock recently found support at the 2021 highs after breaking out earlier this year. The stock continues to hold the rising 20-week moving average, and the trend structure remains constructive after coming off nearly 50% from its highs.
I would continue to be a buyer on any early weakness in 2026 into the 52-week moving average, as well as the 2025 year-to-date anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) zone in the $65 – $70 area. That is in confluence with the stock’s 2020 highs.
Options activity supports this view. We are seeing active large put sellers out to May 2026 in the $65-$85 region, which tends to mark institutional willingness to accumulate shares on pullbacks and support price action. There is also buying at the January 2027 150-strike and 200-strike calls for next December. This area is littered with big out-of-the-money call buyers, which makes these two positions likely the most important for the time frame of this trade.
With rapidly expanding capacity, multibillion-dollar contract visibility, improving enterprise adoption, supportive technicals, constructive options flow, and bearish sentiment, Nebius stock stands out as a top idea heading into 2026.
Recommended Action: Buy NBIS.
