The bull s appear to have held key pivot in the E-mini S&P 500, reports Bill Baruch, President of BlueLineFutures.com previews today’ forex movers.

E-mini S&P (ESM)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2821, up 10.50

Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks are pointing higher this morning with technicals and more talk of “progress” on the U.S.-China trade front providing a tailwind. The strength of 2019’s uptrend is no secret, after the psychological 2800 mark and its coordinating supports withheld a number of assaults this week, the bulls have again found a path of least resistance higher this morning; if it cannot go lower, it shall go higher. As for the talks in Beijing, U.S Treasury Secretary Mnuchin took to Twitter to announce him and U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer concluded “another successful round of talks” and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will come to Washington next week to continue “these important discussions”.

It has been reported the two sides are now going through the wording of the agreement after the Chinese version had previously walked back commitments and concessions. The headlines will point to the two sides being on the verge of a deal and this may in fact be so, but we must wonder what type of substance has truly been achieved; where are the two sides on intellectual property, forced technology transfers, opening Chinese borders and enforcement.

There is a deluge of data to round out the week with PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, leading the way at 7:30 am CT. New York Fed President Williams speaks at 8:25 am CT, the final read on March Michigan Consumer data and New Home Sales are due at 9:00 am CT. Dallas Fed President Kaplan speaks at 9:30 am CT and Fed Governor Quarles speaks at 11:00 am CT.
Technicals: Yesterday, the psychological 2800 level and a budding trend line from overnight lows held in the S&P. 

Crude Oil (CLK)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at $59.30 down 11¢

Fundamentals: Crude oil is sharply higher this morning and trading at the highest level since November. The tape recovered from lows early yesterday through the afternoon, but the surge began this morning after U.S Treasury Secretary Mnuchin tweeted on the progression made between the U.S and China on this round of talks in Beijing. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will travel to Washington next week as the two sides promote rounding third base to reach a deal. With U.S production holding at its estimated record, the anticipation of increased Chinese purchases coupled with a seasonally bullish time of year while Saudi Arabia is cutting exports and production has given crude oil a path of least resistance higher.

Technicals: Major three-star support at $57.88-$58.26 held again yesterday. We said a close below here is needed to confirm our bearish bias and this simply did not happen. Furthermore, Crude closed above $59.03 which neutralized any weakness. We will not fight this trend and a new high today is bullish.

Gold (GCM)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at $1,295.3, down $21.60

Fundamentals: Yesterday’s bloodbath in gold was arguably more technical after the expiration of the April options contract forced repositioning and buyers were simply few and far. Gold sold off sharply after the revision to Q4 GDP coming in at 2.2%, below the 2.4% revised forecast and below the initial 2.6%. Today, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the PCE Index, was soft and gold is responding. While it is encouraging to see the metal bounce back so nicely, traders do want to hold a bit of caution given the close below $1,300 following a lower peak. An upbeat rhetoric behind U.S.-China trade talks has also boosted the metal today with the Chinese yuan gaining ground against the dollar. Considering all of this, we must remind you, our base-case for being bullish gold long term is we do not see sovereign debt yields rising over a long timeframe, highlighted by U.S Treasuries. Treasuries are taking a breather today, yields consolidating higher, and with equity markets set for the end of Q1, it could be a signal to not chase the metal today but rather wait for a pullback early next week.

Technicals: Gold dived below what was major three-star support at $1,299 yesterday and roughly speaking this level will be pivotal on a closing basis today.

Bill Baruch provides technical levels on all markets throughout the week at  BlueLineFutures.com