Markets have sideways mathematics for next week as of Thursday night; it’s subject to change. Reversal/near-target trades prosper in these sideways conditions.
The S&P 500 Futures are near moving-average supports at 2918, 2905 (80-week, 20-month); Look for bullish reversal signals. Fibonacci halfway points from a four-day, 366-point move can pull an early-week rally that stalls sideways near 3065. This is an anticipatory bullish opinion.
Gold offers a reversal opportunity in a bearish direction from two-day chart candlestick sell signals. $1,605/ounce, the 20-day moving average and price distance of the three-day chart candle’s tail is a target.
In this closing week, seven of 10 projected weekly ranges printed by Thursday night. Our headline/tagline advising readers to “Watch the euro, indices” prepared traders for extreme price action- this work’s purpose and the reason I spend hours with a calculator! Our statement that “S&P bear surprises could develop by next Friday” was written on Wednesday night. From Friday’s publishing forward, the S&P 500 dropped 360 points. Range projections show I did not know its depth.
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3069-3045; Low Range 2908-2875
The projected range has bullish skew.
Japanese Yen
High Range 9259-9216; Low Range 9140-9065
Range lows have bullish skew. Opinion from monthly chart breakout/closure over moving averages.
Euro FX
High Range 1.110-1.106; Low Range 1.095-1.090
Range high side skew is slightly bullish. Opinion from weekly chart.
Gold
High Range $1676-$1667; Low Range $1617-$1605
The range is neutral. Opinion is bearish to $1,595 target.
Crude Oil
High Range $5009-$4859; Low Range $4420-$4269
Range has slight bullish skew in highs.
Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (as of Thursday night):
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3421-3400; Low Range 3342-3323
Actual: 3369-2963
The projected range has a bear skew on both sides. 3427-3347 is a balanced, one-standard-deviation
Japanese Yen
High Range 9155-9068; Low Range 8965-8920
Actual: 9189-8963
Range high side skew is mildly bullish. The low range is normal/neutral. Option volume at 8750, under my range.
Euro FX
High Range 1.095-1.088; Low Range 1.080-1.075
Actual: 1.101-1.079
Range high side skew is very bullish. Opinion from continued positively divergent triple clusters; FXE (ETF) has option volume even farther above.
Gold
High Range $1638-$1625; Low Range $1599-$1587
Actual: $1691-$1621
Range has slight bull skew. Opinion based on option chain volume at $1635, over my $1625 target.;.
Crude Oil
High Range $56.19-$55.19; Low Range $52.60-$52.06
Actual: $53.86-$45.69
Range has slight bullish skew and lower high extrema. The current low-strike option volume is in $53s, $1 over my lows. Traders may adjust my low range up if trusting option chain more.
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.
Note: Range calculations this week were made Wednesday evening. Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.