Temporary bullish bounces abound for indices, euro, gold, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
World indices remain mixed, and traders can monitor symbols that track advancing-declining share ratios as a trending lead indicator into March. Indices are on moving averages printing bearish low prices.
Monthly charts on the euro show bearish tendency, but the euro and Japanese yen futures now rest on technical supports; both should bounce in tandem. Gold charts also show bounce potential, but gold's quarterly charts, that could change before they close, feature both inverted hammer and doji range breakout candlesticks at the top of Bollinger Bands with momentum understudies supporting a downside gold market; it could extend into Q4, 2021 when seasonality/religious holidays reverse it.
Corn futures' monthly chart doji candlestick high is bearish—almost being a five-week/five-month short trade, although shorting food prices assumes the Federal Reserve's unfulfilled, revised 2.25% inflation target will pause until Q4.
My last article included a tagline on "bearish conditions" in "currencies/metals" both of which became successful bear trades. I also highlighted General Motors' (GM) "identical chart setups" that resulted in two weeks of successively lower lows. Seven of 10 projected ranges printed as of Saturday, February 27, 2021, with missed ranges being very close.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written Saturday Night, February 27, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3972-3847; Low Range 3783-3771
Bearish and Bullish expectations in ranges due to moving average supports and monthly-chart bearish setups. Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225
Japanese Yen
High Range 9475-9459; Low Range 9375-9360
Moderately bullish ranges from moving average supports in trending mathematic conditions likely to exceed my ranges. Yearly pivot .009498 has been hit and may pull price from above to re-print
Euro FX
High Range 1.220-1.214; Low Range 1.204-1.201
Bearish ranges with bullish bounce off clustered multitime frame, moving average supports; bear candles on Daily, Weekly, 2-Day charts. Yearly pivot: 1.174
Gold
High Range $1780-$1762; Low Range $1724-1708 55-25
Slightly bullish ranges in rangebound-pivots character; 50-week moving average support in play. 20-Month & 80-Week Moving Average supports below near $1700. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above.
Crude Oil
High Range $6304-6210; Low Range $6043-5934
Bear-adjusted range in trending pivot math; Daily chart doji breakdown, momentum candle trade is in effect. Yearly pivot: $40.19
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written Saturday, February 13 for February 13-28, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3970-3947; Low Range 3832-3810
Bullish then bearish indications. Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225
Actual: 3959-3784
Japanese Yen
High Range 9614-9570; Low Range 9475-9422
Moderately bearish ranges from technicals in trending mathematic conditions likely to exceed my ranges. Yearly pivot .009498 has been hit and two-day chart candles show attempts at support
Actual: 9532-9373
Euro FX
High Range 1.222-1.217; Low Range 1.204-1.194
Neutral ranges with bullish bounce off 500-week, 20-week moving averages; trending breakout math. Yearly pivot: 1.174
Actual: 1.224-1.202
Gold
High Range $1867-$1837; Low Range $1812-1788
Slightly bearish ranges in trending, pivots-breakout character; 50-week moving average support in play. Quarterly pivot: $1876 already printed. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed.
Actual: $1,827-1,714
Crude Oil
High Range $6121-6014; Low Range $5751-5604
Neutral range with sideways pivot math; Iron condor trade lost after being a slight win early in the trade. Yearly pivot: $40.19
Actual: $63.81-5860
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
