Stocks continued to surge this week, with the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) up 11% in the 15 days through Wednesday. The Nasdaq was up 16% during that same time. From a technical perspective, SPX trendline support is now 6,815 – which is down about 3% from here, writes Kenny Polcari, chief market strategist at SlateStone Wealth.
A trendline drawn off the high in October to the highs in February also suggests that we will find resistance at 7,075-ish. So, the new range is 6,815/7,075 for now.
S&P 500 Index (^SPX)
Data by YCharts
The leadership is coming from the beaten-up, oversold tech sector, names that you all know. The theme is clear: It’s the chip trade and the AI infrastructure buildout. But it’s also the Iran ceasefire optimism all converging at once.
President Trump told Fox Business Tuesday morning that the war is “very close to over.” He added that he believes Iran “wants to make a deal very badly.” Investors, traders, and algos ran with it.
The reality, of course, is more complicated. The US and Iran remain in communication through Pakistan as an intermediary. But no extension of the current two-week ceasefire has been formally agreed to, even as the AP reported an “in principle” understanding was taking shape.
The ceasefire clock is ticking — it expires next week — and the IDF made clear it remains “prepared to attack again in a powerful manner” if a deal falls apart. Iran’s foreign ministry is calling some US demands “unreasonable and unrealistic” (yawn) and insisting on its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.
For now, the market is choosing to focus on the optimistic interpretation. When you combine that narrative with big tech roaring back, you get this week’s excitement
