Sure, crude oil is the talk of the town these days. But don’t just watch WTI or Brent futures. Check out what’s happening in product markets, too!
You’ll see what I mean when you look at the MoneyShow Chart of the Day. It shows the year-to-date percentage change in diesel futures and gasoline futures in addition to oil. What’s immediately clear? The price of products derived from petroleum is rising much more than the price of petroleum itself.
Diesel (Red), Gasoline (Blue), Crude Oil (Black) – YTD % Change
Source: TradingView
The difference isn’t small, either. While US benchmark oil prices are up 58% YTD, wholesale gas prices are up 83%. Diesel has surged more than TWICE as much as crude – 121%.
What’s fueling the moves? The same underlying conflict – the US/Iran War – is driving all energy costs up. But tightening global product supplies are impacting those markets specifically.
For one thing, Ukraine is damaging Russian refineries with drone strikes now. That’s helping limit global diesel supplies because European (and Russian) refineries are exporting less to global markets.
For another thing, refineries in countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been damaged. Iran’s ongoing attacks are limiting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Plus, US diesel supplies are sitting at the lowest level for this time of year since the government began tracking in the early 1980s.
Add it all up and you get an environment where consumers and truckers are feeling the pinch. On the flip side, shares of refiners like Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) and Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) are soaring. They’re up 176% and 134%, respectively, YTD.
Bottom line? Crude oil isn’t telling the WHOLE story when it comes to energy markets or energy stocks on Wall Street. Not to mention energy prices on Main Street.
