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It’s impossible to predict external events in advance, but the chances of an escalation in the Ukraine war increased recently. And escalation of the war in Ukraine could fuel a fourth-quarter correction for the S&P 500 Index (^SPX), suggests Ivan Martchev, investment strategist at Navellier & Associates.

The S&P 500 just registered its second down week in a row after hitting an all-time high as recently as February 19. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields dropped five weeks in a row, which is even more telling, notes Ivan Martchev, investment strategist at Navellier & Associates.

We have gone back into the pattern of seeing corrections last only one or two days, as sharp as they may be, with investors rotating into the broad market as the tech sector gets extended, despite remaining very strong, with no sign of abating, notes Ivan Martchev, investment strategist at E Navellier & Associates.

By themselves, Treasury yields spiking out of control can cause a recession, and October delivered both a 5% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds and 8% fixed-rate mortgages. We have gotten into a situation where the avalanche of Treasury issuance is overwhelming investors. But with all this negative backdrop, the Treasury market is showing signs of exhaustion, counsels Ivan Martchev, investment strategist at Navellier & Associates.