One type of theme we like to look for are “follow on” opportunities, which are newer names that pop up in a growth industry with something new and different — and become the new leaders, explains Mike Cintolo, editor of Cabot Top Ten Trader.
In that sense, we think Bumble (BMBL) could be “the next” Match or Tinder, leading the online dating sector in the years ahead; indeed, the firm was started by the former VP of Marketing for Tinder (and is just 32 years old, by the way).
But this isn’t just a Tinder copycat: The big difference with Bumble is that women have to make the first move via initiating a chat, giving them more power to command the conversation, picking and choosing potential matches. (Lots of guys like it, too, taking the pressure off to always go first.)
Another difference is Bumble’s policy on “ghosting,” which is when someone abruptly cuts off a conversation (usually in place of actually saying they’re not interested) — basically, a new chat must be responded to within 24 hours or else it disappears.
Throw in fewer spam bots than most competitions, and Bumble is carving out a name for itself in the matchmaking industry, leading to consistent growth and now profits, too — in Q1, sales rose 24%, earnings of 13 cents crushed estimates by 17 cents and (most important) user growth on Bumble rose 8% sequentially and 31% from the year before. (Revenue per user was also up 5% from the year before.)
The company also operates an older app called Badoo, which is focused overseas, though that’s having a tough time right now (the Ukraine conflict is hurting subscriber totals); its namesake app makes up three quarters of revenue and is the growth engine here. In total, revenues should be up 20%-plus this year, the bottom line should be in the black and most analysts see user growth remaining strong.
Technically, BMBL came public with a lot of fanfare more than a year ago, and the result was a toboggan slide from the get-go, falling from around 80 to a low of 16 in March.
However, while there’s clearly more work to do, the stock now has 11 weeks of positive relative strength and has found big-volume buying on each of the past two quarterly reports (one in early March, the other two weeks ago). It’s not for the faint of heart, but a nibble here or on dips with a loose stop seems like a decent bet.
