Both gold and silver ETFs have taken the spotlight this year and last, pulling in massive inflows and outperforming equities. So, how well do these miner ETFs actually track the prices of the underlying metals? Are they a good proxy for spot gold and silver exposure? Here's what the data says, writes Tony Dong, lead ETF analyst at ETF Central.
A backtest covering monthly returns from May 2020 to May 2025 shows that while gold and silver miner ETFs are reasonably correlated with their underlying bullion counterparts, they are far from perfect substitutes.
The Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) shows a correlation of 0.81 with the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has an even tighter 0.82 correlation with SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). That means their returns generally move in the same direction over time, but not perfectly.
Where the difference really shows is in volatility and performance. SIL and GDX both exhibit annualized standard deviations over 34%, compared to just 15.7% for GLD and 30.5% for SLV. That elevated volatility likely played a major role in dragging down their annualized returns.
In short, if you’re buying miner ETFs expecting them to mirror the performance of spot metals, you might be taking on far more risk for less return. The discrepancy between miner ETFs and spot metal ETFs stems from fundamental differences in the underlying assets. While gold and silver miners are influenced by the prices of the metals they produce, they're also operating businesses — with all the complexity, costs, and risks that come with it.
The key takeaway? If your goal is long-term, buy-and-hold exposure that closely tracks the price of gold or silver, your best bet is a physically backed bullion ETF like GLD or SLV. For a short-term tactical bet on rising gold or silver prices, miner ETFs like GDX or SIL can offer amplified upside. They’re often easier to access than margin, futures, or leveraged products, and provide embedded leverage through their operating exposure to metal prices.
