Crude oil is cracking, with global benchmark prices (Brent) slipping below $60 per barrel this week for the first time since 2021. North American pricing as measured by West Texas Intermediate is also sliding to a near-five-year low, highlights Amber Kanwar, host of the In the Money with Amber Kanwar podcast.
Oversupply is the culprit here. We had an in-depth chat about this with TD’s Hussein Allidina, who explained that weakness would persist for the first half of 2026 before it was time to get long again. Interestingly, the TSX Energy sector hasn’t been fussed, with the sector up 18% compared to a 21% drop in oil prices this year.
Meanwhile, the US added more jobs than expected in November (64,000 versus a 50,000 forecast) according to data from a delayed release. But October was ugly, with 105,000 jobs lost. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 4.6%.
How to make sense of the data? “Although Powell has said the FOMC will look at this data skeptically, on the surface, the job market does not look like it is in the best shape,” wrote CIBC’s Ali Jaffery. As for what it means for rates, “The dissenters and no-change dots at the last FOMC meeting may be rethinking their positions after today’s data, and the odds of a rate cut occurring earlier in 2026 have risen.”
