The first-quarter earnings reporting period unofficially starts during the week of April 14. Q1 earnings per share (EPS) are now forecast to rise 12.3% year-over-year, according to S&P Capital IQ consensus estimates. That is higher than the 11.4% average quarterly YOY increase since 2009, writes Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
For full-year 2026, S&P 500 EPS are projected to increase 16.4%, followed by 16.9% growth in 2027. Full-year 2026/2027 gains for the S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 are now seen at +19.5%/+17.2% and +22.9%/+21.8%, respectively.
(Editor’s Note: Sam is speaking at our July 2026 MoneyShow Virtual Expo. Click HERE to register.)
In addition, the S&P 500 Growth Index will likely post a 26.3% increase for 2026 and a 21.8% gain in 2027. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Value Index should record a gain of 8.4% in 2026 and then accelerate to a 12.6% rise in 2027.
As of March 31, the S&P 500’s expected Q1 2026 EPS growth of over 12% will be mainly driven by the 25% gain in the S&P 500 Growth Index, fueled by a 44.1% surge in the Information Technology sector.
We expect the leading YOY gains to be seen in the Financials and Real Estate sectors. Areas likely to deliver the weakest returns are the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Health Care sectors.
