The jobless claims data remains benign. The initial filing of benefits totaled just 197,000, 3,000 less than expected and down slightly from 198,000 in the week before. The four-week average fell to 200,000 from 203,000, observes Peter Boockvar, editor of The Boock Report.
Continuing claims dropped by 11,000 week-over-week to 1.701 mm, remaining about 200,000 below the trend seen last year.
(Editor’s Note: Peter is speaking at the 2026 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando, scheduled for Oct. 5-7. Click HERE to register.)
Jobless Claims (4-Week Moving Average)
Along with this, Challenger released its September hiring/firing data this week. With regards to layoffs, they fell 20% year-over-year and 18% month-over-month. Hirings rose from August, but declined by 23% YOY.
Challenger said: “Companies are in a wait-and-see period right now. Employers are facing high energy costs, an uncertain war in Iran, a rate hike that could make hiring more expensive, plus the likelihood of surging healthcare costs. We’ve seen layoff activity subside over this year, and September continues to illustrate this point.”
On the job creation side, “Hiring plans are up over the year, but we’re not seeing the surge of hiring plans that come with the holiday season, which suggests a very cautious approach.”
We didn’t see much of a response from the Treasury market, but we did see a bounce in European bonds. That helped the US 10-year yield back off from the 5.30%-ish level it hit before the numbers.
