The equity markets are inching higher today after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit new record highs yesterday. Gold and silver are pulling back again, while crude oil is marginally higher along with the dollar.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) strategists are out there warning of “bubble risk” in the stock market…again. The firm’s team led by Michael Hartnett said we have “bigger retail, bigger liquidity, bigger volatility, bigger bubble” conditions in equities. Yet underlying earnings for the second quarter are looking pretty good.
Roughly 83% of the S&P 500 companies that have already reported for Q2 beat estimates, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s the highest beat rate since Q2 2021. Profits are up about 4.5% year-over-year so far, exceeding the 2.8% growth forecast BI had heading into earnings season.
QQQ, SPY, DIA (YTD % Change)
Data by YCharts
President Trump’s pressure campaign on the Federal Reserve intensified yesterday, with Trump touring the Fed’s under-construction headquarters with Chairman Jay Powell. The made-for-television excursion was his latest attempt to get Powell to cut interest rates, this time by emphasizing cost overruns on the construction project as an example of Fed mismanagement.
Still, markets expect virtually no chance of a cut in the short-term federal funds rate at the Fed meeting that concludes next Wednesday. Rate futures are signaling a 60% chance of a cut in September, down from 68% a month ago.
Finally, how intense is “Meme Stock Mania 2.0” getting? Yesterday, about 15% of ALL trading volume on US exchanges came from one stock. Its name is Healthcare Triangle Inc. (HCTI), it trades for around $0.05, and it has a market capitalization of just $22.2 million. The stock soared 115% on no apparent news – with volume of more than 3 billion shares. Eat your heart out AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC)!
