Stocks remain in a holding pattern today, while gold and silver are pulling back. Crude oil is climbing again, while Treasuries remain under modest pressure.
The Group of Seven nations and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are proposing a massive, global release of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) – upwards of 400 million barrels. By way of comparison, roughly 183 million barrels were released when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The move is aimed at countering Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. Approximately 6% of global oil output has been shut in because producers have nowhere to store or ship their output.
WTI Crude Oil Futures (5-Day Chart)
Source: TradingView
After surging to almost $120 a barrel Sunday night, oil prices dropped below $90 a day later amid SPR release rumors. But now they’re stabilizing at elevated levels because of fears the US-Israel-Iran conflict could drag on.
One concern: Even 400 million barrels won’t offset supply losses forever. The 32 IEA member countries have about 1.2 billion barrels in reserve, with another 600 million in commercial supplies available to tap in an emergency. News that Iran is now laying mines in the Strait to deter shipping isn’t helping, either.
On the AI front, Oracle Corp. (ORCL) reported encouraging sales numbers – cheering investors and sending its shares higher. The company forecast revenue of $90 billion in fiscal 2027, topping the $86.6 billion average estimate from analysts. Oracle said demand for cloud computing capacity used to train AI models is surging, while internal adoption of AI is helping it reduce labor costs. Oracle stock was down 23% year-to-date before the news hit.
Finally, the headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February while the core CPI climbed 0.2%. Those readings matched economist estimates. But the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East could put upward pressure on inflation down the road. The Federal Reserve meets next week, and rate futures markets are confident it won’t cut then. The question is what happens at the next three meetings after that, which are scheduled for April, June, and July.
