Stocks are soaring, crude oil is tanking, and bonds are rallying off their lows. Gold and silver are bouncing after an early selloff, while the dollar is down modestly.
It was looking like another ugly day across the board for markets. Then this morning, President Trump announced he was pausing attacks on Iranian energy and power sites for five days. He said the US and Iran had “very good and productive” conversations, though Iran’s Fars news agency said there was “no direct or indirect communications with Trump.”
Israel and Iran spent the weekend trading fire, while Iran had escalated its threats against Persian Gulf shipping. In the month through last Friday’s close, almost every market outside of energy was getting hammered. The State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down 5.6%, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) was off 3.6%, and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was down 11.7%. Meanwhile, the United States Oil Fund (USO) was up 50.1%.
SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD, USO (1-Mo. % Change)
Data by YCharts
Prediction markets have boomed in the last couple years, with companies like Kalshi and Polymarket offering an expanding array of contracts to US traders. But the proliferation of sports-related contracts is rankling state regulators and traditional casinos and sportsbooks – and now federal legislators are weighing in.
Democratic Senator Adam Schiff and Republican Senator John Curtis are introducing a bill to ban sports contracts and “casino-style games.” The move comes amid a series of lawsuits in states like Arizona and Nevada to curb prediction market activity. Both companies have pushed back, saying they can only be regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It has taken a fairly friendly regulatory approach to prediction markets.
Finally, Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) is linking up with the tech firm Talos in another deal that will help merge the traditional finance and blockchain-based trading worlds. Talos clients will gain access to Nasdaq’s Calypso platform, which is used to manage margin and collateral requirements, among other things. Both Nasdaq and the NYSE are taking steps that should eventually allow 24/7 trading of tokenized equities and ETFs. Crypto already trades around the clock.
