Stocks are rallying in early trading today. Gold and silver are higher, too, while crude oil is mixed. Treasuries are up slightly along with Bitcoin.
No, it’s not just you. Despite today’s early pop, the stock market really IS on track for the worst quarter in almost four years. Some leading sectors were already fading earlier in Q1. Then the US and Israel launched the war on Iran at the end of February, sending the rest of the market down with them. As of yesterday, for instance, every S&P 500 sector was showing losses in March except energy.
SPY, QQQ, USO, XLE (QTD % Change)
Data by YCharts
Gold and Treasuries have faded, too, amid widespread liquidation selling. As for energy? Brent crude oil futures have soared 55% this month, the most since the contract started trading in 1988 (Gulf War I drove prices up 46% in September 1990). Plus, the average US price of a gallon of gasoline just topped $4 for the first time since 2022. President Trump reportedly told aides he could walk away from the war without the Strait of Hormuz being reopened, though, and that news helped fuel today's stock market bounce.
Dealmakers remain busy despite market volatility. Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) announced it would buy Centessa Pharmaceuticals Plc (CNTA) of the UK for as much as $7.8 billion. Lilly is paying a mix of upfront and milestone payments to access Centessa’s pipeline of sleep disorder treatments. The maker of the wildly popular weight loss drug Zepbound hasn’t spent this much on an acquisition since 2019.
Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) is taking aim at Lilly by rolling out a Wegovy subscription plan. Depending on what term patients sign up for, they can pay $50 less per month for Wegovy access than they’d pay for a Lilly weight-loss drug. Novo just rolled out the pill form of the drug in January. Still, Novo stock is down 45.7% in the last year, while Lilly stock is up 8.5%.
