Stocks are rising, oil is falling, and gold and silver are rallying in early trading. Crypto is climbing along with bond prices, while the dollar is slipping.
The September jobs report left a LOT to be desired. Last month, nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings gained just 0.1%. Economists expected readings of 90,000, 4.1%, and 0.3%, respectively.
Before the numbers, market participants were pricing in a 1-in-5 chance of a hike at the Federal Reserve’s October meeting – but a 63% chance of one at the December gathering. The lousy report reduced those odds. That could ironically help market sentiment a bit by taking pressure off the bond market, though it raises questions about the economy’s health.
Source: Trading Economics
The Initial Public Offering (IPO) saga took another turn yesterday, with Bloomberg reporting that Anthropic DOES want to go public before the end of the year. The AI giant behind the Claude model reportedly hopes to launch its IPO in the middle of November. That would ensure it gets to market before Wall Street effectively shuts down for the holiday season.
Investors believe the company is worth somewhere between $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion, though it’s unclear exactly how many shares it would sell – and at what price. Previous reports have suggested Anthropic would like to raise as much as $100 billion.
Crude oil is retreating today, but it popped yesterday on two news items. First, the US is reportedly sending another aircraft carrier group and an amphibious readiness group to the Middle East. That would raise the number of sailors and Marines in the region by around 10,000, while putting a third carrier on station. President Trump is mulling a new wave of attacks for after the midterm elections, and this would give him more options.
Second, China is reportedly restricting refined products exports for part of the month to ensure ample domestic supplies. The decision will prevent gasoline and jet fuel exports from going further than Hong Kong or Macau for several days. That piles more pressure on the refined products market, where a global diesel crisis is already raging.
