Technical Talk

10/03/2003 12:00 am EST


Ralph Acampora, John Murphy, and John Bollinger stand among the very best market technicians. They each have exceptional long-term records. Here, they offer their technical overview of gold and their outlooks for the precious metal. (For more on these advisors, simply click on their photos).

Murphy, John"Gold broke briefly through its February high at $390 to hit the highest level in seven years, before pulling back," says John Murphy, editor of "Although the long-term gold chart still looks bullish, we could be seeing a short-term top. Given the size of the recent advance, a setback isn't too surprising. The horizontal lines on the XAU chart are Fibonacci retracement levels, which often act as support levels. A fall back to the late August low at 85, for example, would represent a 50% retracement of the advance that started in mid-July. I wouldn't be suprised to the XAU test that level. My longer-term outlook on gold stocks, however, remains bullish.


Acampora, Ralph"The US Dollar currently appears oversold on a very short-term basis but there is still the potential for this currency to drop back to its June low of 92.30 on the Dollar Index," notes Ralph Acampora, director of technical research at Prudential Financial. "The CRB Index is near its high; this strength is due to the recent rise in energy and gold. Meanwhile, for gold, the trend is still up with targets of 402 and 420 visible; any near term pull back would encounter support at the 372.20 level."

Bollinger, John"The recent pullbacks in gold have been shallow and of short duration and the current pullback is shaping up right along those lines suggesting that the trend is still positive for the metal," says John Bollinger, editor of The Capital Growth Letter. "This bears careful watching as a downturn from these high levels could lead to a meaningful correction. A critical test for gold lies just ahead. Early this year the precious metal approached $390 only to fall $70 in a few weeks. Now we find ourselves eying that level again. Just last week gold traded $383 and $375 looks like short-term equilibrium. If we get turned back again from $390, the words 'double top' will be on everybody's minds. Best scenario, rip through $390 and take on the big test, the psychologically important level of $400. Worst-case, head back down and build up strength for another try."

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