Major Market Ranges for Week of Feb. 16: Yen, Gold & Crude Breakouts

02/14/2020 9:28 am EST

Focus: OPTIONS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Major market range predictions from Trevor Smith.

Narrow-range breakout conditions exist for next week. Directionally, the Japanese yen and crude oil appear bullish technically.  Crude and gold may have a range expansion; both have options activity beyond projected range extrema below.

This week, five of 10 projected weekly ranges printed by Thursday night with other ranges being very close. Price targets at the time the article was written traded in the Japanese yen. Crude oil’s $51.96 high, as of Thursday night, was 4¢ off target.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3425-3401; Low Range 3349-3331

Projected range has slightly-negative bear skew (-10 pts). 3320 even lower has option volume.

Japanese Yen

High Range 9168-9149; Low Range 9102-9086

Range breakout expansion with continued bull skew (+12pts).

Euro FX

High Range 1.096-1.091; Low Range 1.082-1.076

Range with light bull skew. Opinion from understudy continued positive divergence.

Gold

High Range $1,606-$1,592; Low Range $1,570-$1,564

Expanded ranges as there are both bullish and bearish technicals at play. Option volume at 1610, 1560 affirming expanded range outlook.

Crude Oil

High Range $54.35-$52.80; Low Range $50.46-$49.30

Range expanded with slight bullish skew. Technicals suggesting breakout. Option activity is large outside entire range.

Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3385-3365; Low Range 3315-3295

Actual: 3384-3303

Range projections narrowed, w/ negative bear skew (-10 pts). See 3320 standout option volume.

Japanese Yen

High Range 9169-9142; Low Range 9096-9070 

Actual: 9146-9084

Range bull skewed (+12pts). Opinion from fast-Fisher settings, price spreads from moving averages.

Euro FX

High Range 1.107-1.104; Low Range 1.099-1.096

Actual: 1.100-1.084

Range with slight bull skew. Opinion from understudy higher lows diverging from price lower lows. Option volume at 1.105.

Gold

High Range $1604-$1587; Low Range $1560-$1548

Actual: $1581-$1564

Expanded ranges as charts. Option volume at both 1605, 1560 affirming bidirectional opinions.

Crude Oil

High Range $54.07-$52.64; Low Range $49.22-$48.35

Actual: $51.96-$49.42

Range with slight bullish skew. Technicals show that lower prices may precede a reversal. Option activity at $55 (above my range) and $48.

Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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