Major Market Ranges for Week of Feb. 9: Crude, Currency Lows; Index Highs

02/07/2020 1:38 pm EST

Focus: MARKETS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Next week's predicted market ranges from Trevor Smith.

Crude oil and commodity currencies may be close to reversing based on technical conditions.  This outlook leads to overhead price targets into next week (weekly range midpoints): The Euro at 1.103, Japanese yen at .009135, and crude at $52 per barrel based on my research in current market conditions.

U.S. Indices, in contrast, are printing highs with underlying weakness in supportive studies. A pullback near the weekend is as likely as rangebound, sideways pricing next week with no price drop.

In this closing week, nine of 10 projected weekly ranges, including the S&P 500 futures’ 3340 outlier target, had printed by Thursday night. My forward projections on last Friday of 3329 traded. My crude oil directional bias was the wrong one, whose early reversal signs remain intact for the upcoming week.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3385-3365; Low Range 3315-3295

Range projections narrowed, with negative bear skew (-10 pts). See 3320 standout option volume.

Japanese Yen

High Range 9169-9142; Low Range 9096-9070 

Range bull skewed (+12pts). Opinion from fast-Fisher settings, price spreads from moving averages.

Euro FX

High Range 1.107-1.104; Low Range 1.099-1.096

Range with slight bull skew. Opinion from understudy higher lows diverging from price lower lows. Option volume at 1.105.

Gold

High Range $1604-$1587; Low Range $1560-$1548

Expanded ranges due to bullish, then bearish opinion from Daily-Monthly charts. Option volume at both 1605 and 1560 affirming bidirectional opinions.

Crude Oil

High Range $5407-$5264; Low Range $4922-$4835

Range with slight bullish skew. Opinion from technicals that lower prices may precede a low reversal. Option activity at $55 (above my range) and $48.
.

Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (From Friday a.m. to Friday a.m.

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3329-3312 (3340 outlier target); Low Range: 3265-3251

Actual: 3357-3222

Range projections expanded. Opinion due to bull market internals, bear price bars r/t Bollinger Bands. Low range skewed +10pts. Countertrade expects weekly range inside this week’s range.

Japanese Yen

High Range 9234-9204; Low Range 9173-9150 

Actual: 9254-9106

Bear-skewed range (+7 pts) based on opinion from technical conditions/candlestick patterns multiple time frames. Countertrade sees green inverted hammer candle with surprise bullish close, price probe higher up the tail of the hammer.

Euro FX

High Range 1.110-1.108; Low Range: 1.104-1.101

Actual: 1.112-1.098

High range extension from opinion based on hammer-low candlesticks with momentum, volume under Bollinger Bands. Countertrade expects 5th wave down to new lows, sideways chop

Gold

High Range $1594-$1583; Low Range $1563-$1553

Actual: $1598-$1551

Expanded lower range based on narrow ranges, pivots, inverted hammer candlesticks with volume, momentum, Bollinger Band positioning. Bears: trade toward $1554 target using ’65/60 strikes.

ountertrade expects rally and/or sideways, continuation against trending pivots, narrow-range breakout math setup. Bulls: trade toward $1582 w/ ’80 strike.

Crude Oil

High Range $5555-$5412; Low Range $5203-$5049

Actual: $5336-$4931

Expanded high range from opinion based on bullish candlesticks, moving average supports breached without responses, stopping at monthly pivots. Countertrade sees price fall through moving averages as if not even present with red candle hammer low that bulls couldn’t even close in the green.

See More analysis from Trevor here

Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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