Next week's predicted market ranges from Trevor Smith.
Crude oil and commodity currencies may be close to reversing based on technical conditions. This outlook leads to overhead price targets into next week (weekly range midpoints): The Euro at 1.103, Japanese yen at .009135, and crude at $52 per barrel based on my research in current market conditions.
U.S. Indices, in contrast, are printing highs with underlying weakness in supportive studies. A pullback near the weekend is as likely as rangebound, sideways pricing next week with no price drop.
In this closing week, nine of 10 projected weekly ranges, including the S&P 500 futures’ 3340 outlier target, had printed by Thursday night. My forward projections on last Friday of 3329 traded. My crude oil directional bias was the wrong one, whose early reversal signs remain intact for the upcoming week.
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3385-3365; Low Range 3315-3295
Range projections narrowed, with negative bear skew (-10 pts). See 3320 standout option volume.
Japanese Yen
High Range 9169-9142; Low Range 9096-9070
Range bull skewed (+12pts). Opinion from fast-Fisher settings, price spreads from moving averages.
Euro FX
High Range 1.107-1.104; Low Range 1.099-1.096
Range with slight bull skew. Opinion from understudy higher lows diverging from price lower lows. Option volume at 1.105.
Gold
High Range $1604-$1587; Low Range $1560-$1548
Expanded ranges due to bullish, then bearish opinion from Daily-Monthly charts. Option volume at both 1605 and 1560 affirming bidirectional opinions.
Crude Oil
High Range $5407-$5264; Low Range $4922-$4835
Range with slight bullish skew. Opinion from technicals that lower prices may precede a low reversal. Option activity at $55 (above my range) and $48.
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Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (From Friday a.m. to Friday a.m.
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3329-3312 (3340 outlier target); Low Range: 3265-3251
Actual: 3357-3222
Range projections expanded. Opinion due to bull market internals, bear price bars r/t Bollinger Bands. Low range skewed +10pts. Countertrade expects weekly range inside this week’s range.
Japanese Yen
High Range 9234-9204; Low Range 9173-9150
Actual: 9254-9106
Bear-skewed range (+7 pts) based on opinion from technical conditions/candlestick patterns multiple time frames. Countertrade sees green inverted hammer candle with surprise bullish close, price probe higher up the tail of the hammer.
Euro FX
High Range 1.110-1.108; Low Range: 1.104-1.101
Actual: 1.112-1.098
High range extension from opinion based on hammer-low candlesticks with momentum, volume under Bollinger Bands. Countertrade expects 5th wave down to new lows, sideways chop
Gold
High Range $1594-$1583; Low Range $1563-$1553
Actual: $1598-$1551
Expanded lower range based on narrow ranges, pivots, inverted hammer candlesticks with volume, momentum, Bollinger Band positioning. Bears: trade toward $1554 target using ’65/60 strikes.
ountertrade expects rally and/or sideways, continuation against trending pivots, narrow-range breakout math setup. Bulls: trade toward $1582 w/ ’80 strike.
Crude Oil
High Range $5555-$5412; Low Range $5203-$5049
Actual: $5336-$4931
Expanded high range from opinion based on bullish candlesticks, moving average supports breached without responses, stopping at monthly pivots. Countertrade sees price fall through moving averages as if not even present with red candle hammer low that bulls couldn’t even close in the green.
See More analysis from Trevor here
Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.
