Major Market Ranges for Week of Feb. 2: Breakout Trades Return

01/31/2020 1:15 pm EST


Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor,

Major market range predictions from Trevor Smith.

Trending breakouts are very likely this Friday into next Friday, because markets have been in relatively tight ranges.

This week, six of 10 projected weekly ranges printed Thursday night with the other ranges being close. Four of five directional range skews proved correct as evidenced by actual market bias.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3329-3312 (3340 outlier target); Low Range: 3265-3251
Range projections expanding.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9234-9204; Low Range 9173-9150 
Bear-skewed range (+7 pts) based on opinion from technical conditions/candlestick patterns multiple time frames. Countertrade sees green inverted hammer candle with surprise bullish close, price probe higher up the tail of the hammer.

Euro FX
High Range 1.110-1.108; Low Range: 1.104-1.101
High range extension from opinion based on hammer-low candlesticks with momentum, volume under Bollinger Bands.  Countertrade expects 5th wave down to new lows, sideways chop

High Range $1594-$1583; Low Range $1563-$1553
Expanded lower range based on narrow ranges, pivots, inverted hammer candlesticks with volume, momentum, Bollinger Band positioning. Bears: trade toward $1,554 using ’65/60 strikes. Countertrade expects rally and/or sideways, continuation against trending pivots, narrow-range breakout math setup. Bulls: trade toward $1,582 w/ ’80 strike.

Crude Oil
High Range $55.55-$54.12; Low Range $5203-$5049
Expanded high range from opinion based on bullish candlesticks, moving average supports breached without responses, stopping at monthly pivots. Countertrade sees price fall through moving averages as if not even present with red candle hammer low that bulls couldn’t even close in the green.

Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (From Friday a.m. to Friday a.m.)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3363-3345; Low Range 3296-3281
Actual: 3337-3233
High range projections bear skewed by 6 pts. Opinion from understudies, Bollinger Bands. Countertrade sees bullish market internals/new highs.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9191-9182; Low Range 9135-9120 
Actual: 9231-9143
Bull-skewed range (+8 pts) based on opinion from moving average supports. Countertrade sees 20-week moving average 9120 throwback.

Euro FX
High Range 1.114-1.110; Low Range 1.106-1.103
Actual: 1.110-1.102
Extended range lower from opinion based on narrow ranges & pivots. Countertrade expects reversal rally off extreme pivot supports.

High Range $1579-$1570; Low Range $1550-$1542
Actual: $1590-$1555
Expanded range from opinion based on narrow ranges & pivots. Countertrade expects sideways, continuation.

Crude Oil
High Range $5903-$5733; Low Range $5465-$5375
Actual: $55.95-$51.66
Slightly-expanded range from opinion based on wide ranges/wide pivots. Bullish opinion from 1,000-day moving average support/prior response. Countertrade seeks breakout range expansions.

See More analysis from Trevor here

Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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