Major Market Ranges for Week of Mar 22: Market Rebound

03/20/2020 12:10 pm EST

Focus: MARKETS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Major market ranges prediction from Trevor Smith.

Shorter term, bullish recovery attempts off of recent lows should emerge from this Friday into next Friday.

Last week, I stated, “Bear trades may be favored into next week for Japanese yen futures”, before they moved from .009553-.009209. I also wrote that long trades may be favored in crude oil and S&P 500 futures but was wrong and/or early. seven of 10 projected weekly ranges printed.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 2660-2550; Low Range 2335-2265

Bullish-adjusted range from market internals strong since Feb. 28.

Japanese Yen

High Range 9350-9250; Low Range 9053-8953 

Range is neutral-bullish, bearish monthly chart.

Euro FX

High Range 1.106-1.096; Low Range 1.065-1.057

Range has slight bullish skew.

Gold

High Range $1567-$1542; Low Range $1457-$1440

Week’s range is bullish being on 50-Week moving average support; it’s bearish next Quarter from Monthly chart. Trade Idea: lightly sell put spread weekly $1495/1500 strikes for volatility collapse.

Crude Oil

High Range $3470-$3170; Low Range $2322-$2022

Range has bullish skew off lows. Trade Idea: Sell weekly put spread if stops run lower occurs Fri-Mon and time decay remains.

Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (as of Thursday afternoon):

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 2860-2720; Low Range 2570-2465

Actual: 2697-2262

Possible high range extension from market internals strong since Feb. 28.

Japanese Yen

High Range 9600-9470; Low Range 9400-9325 

Actual:9554-9035

Range lows expanded; not sure how far down it may go.

Euro FX

High Range 1.129-1.119; Low Range 1.110-1.102

Actual: 1127-1070

Range is bearish skewed.

Gold

High Range $1,638-$1,614; Low Range $1,580-$1,550

Actual: $1,597-$1,450

Range is bearish through March.

Crude Oil

High Range $37.37-$35.00; Low Range $30.56-$28.00

Actual: $33.87-$20.52

Range has bullish skew off lows.

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