Major market ranges prediction from Trevor Smith.
Shorter term, bullish recovery attempts off of recent lows should emerge from this Friday into next Friday.
Last week, I stated, “Bear trades may be favored into next week for Japanese yen futures”, before they moved from .009553-.009209. I also wrote that long trades may be favored in crude oil and S&P 500 futures but was wrong and/or early. seven of 10 projected weekly ranges printed.
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2660-2550; Low Range 2335-2265
Bullish-adjusted range from market internals strong since Feb. 28.
Japanese Yen
High Range 9350-9250; Low Range 9053-8953
Range is neutral-bullish, bearish monthly chart.
Euro FX
High Range 1.106-1.096; Low Range 1.065-1.057
Range has slight bullish skew.
Gold
High Range $1567-$1542; Low Range $1457-$1440
Week’s range is bullish being on 50-Week moving average support; it’s bearish next Quarter from Monthly chart. Trade Idea: lightly sell put spread weekly $1495/1500 strikes for volatility collapse.
Crude Oil
High Range $3470-$3170; Low Range $2322-$2022
Range has bullish skew off lows. Trade Idea: Sell weekly put spread if stops run lower occurs Fri-Mon and time decay remains.
Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (as of Thursday afternoon):
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2860-2720; Low Range 2570-2465
Actual: 2697-2262
Possible high range extension from market internals strong since Feb. 28.
Japanese Yen
High Range 9600-9470; Low Range 9400-9325
Actual:9554-9035
Range lows expanded; not sure how far down it may go.
Euro FX
High Range 1.129-1.119; Low Range 1.110-1.102
Actual: 1127-1070
Range is bearish skewed.
Gold
High Range $1,638-$1,614; Low Range $1,580-$1,550
Actual: $1,597-$1,450
Range is bearish through March.
Crude Oil
High Range $37.37-$35.00; Low Range $30.56-$28.00
Actual: $33.87-$20.52
Range has bullish skew off lows.
