Major Market Ranges for the Week of July 19: Consumers/Investors To Buy Dips

07/17/2020 2:25 pm EST

Focus: MARKETS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

The next Two Weeks are all about consumer discretionary (essentials) spending, and market sentiment, reports Trevor Smith.

The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), reflecting the Nasdaq Composite Index may lead markets in a pullback, if the three-day chart’s spinning-top doji candlestick and bearish volume surge can be used to predict direction. SPDR Trust Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) with its bear candle signal on highs and SPDR Trust Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) comprise an ETF leading-indicator duo that are diverging. Watch these.

Next week, a Fibonacci retracement time pivot zone from the prior 28-day rally, would also be the most common monthly-low stock index date; it attracts calendar-date buyers to precede the crescent-quarter-full moon cycle buyers and month’s-end buyers who all habitually expect monthly price runups before they sell at a month’s turn. A massive moon-cycle-timed gold breakout may occur for five days.

Last week’s “Trending Breakouts in Market Weakness” headline described this week’s breakouts in world markets; both the S&P 500 and Japanese yen bear option spread trade ideas would have succeeded, but the euro short monthly call spread idea continues to be bad with two weeks left. All three categories of anticipated news-category events described last Thursday did occur: Tropical Storm Fay, Pandemic data, and geopolitical conflict news. The unfortunate Egyptian Oil Pipeline explosion demonstrates how reactive oil pricing gets near new highs versus indices and world oil-dependency.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3261-3242; Low Range 3172-315 (outlier 3059)
Neutral-bearish range. Understudy oscillator negative divergence. Buy a put spread, if a believer of the bear story, waiting for stops runs. Buy week’s low after stops runs.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9372-9351; Low Range 9308-9287
Bearish range due to three-day candlestick. Breakout for next week. Sell call spread or join breakout either direction.

Euro FX
High Range 1.147-1.142; Low Range 1.135-1.131
Bearish weekly range; Bearish candlestick patterns in technical resistances & strongly-trending breakouts. Hold/add short monthly call spreads.

Gold
High Range $1818-$1806; Low Range $1788-$1777
Neutral-bearish range based on Daily chart Doji breakdown signal. Sell call spread monthly based on weekly chart.

Crude Oil

High Range $42.92-$41.50; Low Range $39.87-$38.88
Neutral-bearish range. Quarterly chart bullish targets at $51 for Fall. Fri-Mon breakout possible.

Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3181-3162; Low Range 3089-3077 (outlier 3047)
Neutral-bearish range. Weak market internals, Russel index takes out lows. Buy a put spread if a believer of the bear story
Actual: 3233-3111

Japanese Yen
High Range 9362-9348; Low Range 9307-9285
Bearish range due to candlesticks in low volatility but sideways tendency for next week. Sell call spread for sideways-pricing time decay or join breakout either direction.
Actual: 9382-9315

Euro FX
High Range 1.136-1.134; Low Range 1.127-1.124
Bearish weekly range; bearish candlestick patterns on daily and weekly charts. Hold short monthly call spreads, if able.
Actual: 1.146-1.127

Gold
High Range $1831-$1816; Low Range $1794-$1782
Neutral-bearish range based on daily chart’s negative divergence in understudy oscillators.
Actual: $1819-$1791

Crude Oil
High Range $41.23-40.18; Low Range $39.03-38.63
Neutral-bearish range. Weekly chart bearish to $35 for next two to four weeks. Quarterly chart bullish targets at $51 for Fall. Weather/ environmental event may reduce supply & raise land or at-sea oil prices.
Actual: $41.26-$38.54
.
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.

Related Articles on MARKETS