Crucial Bull-Bear Battle (Indices, Euro)

09/28/2020 10:00 am EST


Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor,

Bull’s strength into the September/Q3 close may offset longer-term bear trade buildup, reports Trevor Smith.

In the short term, market internals/technical indicators for world indices are strong. Higher time frames are the directional-control battleground, however. The euro is very similar in its bullish low-reversal fortitude within the current monthly chart bearish-engulfing candlestick that closes both the month and fiscal quarter in six days. If the euro leads US indices higher into a Q3 bullish closure, then monthly charts of both may close stronger, thus bullishly raising Q4 pullback targets (anticipatory opinion). Traders will watch the euro/world indices closely on all time frames between daily and yearly charts.

Last week’s article proved correct about “slightly-weak Indices”, “bi-directional moves”, “moderate trending character”, and “inside-range breakout potential.” Nine of 10 ranges printed as of Thursday afternoon.  

The Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3332 3305; Low Range 3224-3206
Neutral-bullish ranges/opinion based on internals, multiday ranges, and monthly pivot reversal supports. Trade idea: sell put spreads if outright bullish to collect premium from volatility.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9569-9535; Low Range 9463-9445
Neutral-bullish ranges based on moving average support. Breakout trade likely (daily chart). Wave-three break level higher at .9514 (4-hr) to week’s highs; two-day chart bear target below at .9471, .9461

Euro FX
High Range 1.183-1.177; Low Range 1.164-1.159
Neutral-bullish ranges based on monthly reversal pivot & moving average support. Daily chart bullish 1.172 break level, higher frames are bearish.

High Range $1918-$1899; Low Range $1848-1833 
Neutral-bullish ranges from both reversal monthly pivot supports and candlesticks passing through successive time frames $1928 target derived from daily chart Bollinger Band midpoint; Bearish weekly & monthly charts persist.

Crude Oil
High Range $4118-4075; Low Range $3965-3917
Neutral-mixed directional range skew; Breakout trade wave-three up at $40.80, 41.52; $38.91 breakdowns may print $38.40; traders can narrow my widened low range if bullish. Pivots support.  

Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3410-3390; Low Range 3327-3310
Neutral-bullish ranges/opinion based on moving average supports. Trade idea: sell put spreads if outright bullish due to collect premium from volatility.
Actual: 3363-3198

Japanese Yen
High Range 9595-9576; Low Range 9514-9495
Neutral-bearish ranges based on understudy oscillators; extreme prior wide-range move up.
Actual: 9625-9484

Euro FX
High Range 1.193-1.189; Low Range 1.177-1.174
Neutral-bullish ranges based on recent wide range move, hammer candlestick daily chart. Weekly chart inverted hammer candle bearish into Oct.
Actual: 1.189-1.164

High Range $1983-$1965; Low Range $1935-1922 
Neutral-bearish ranges from viewing weekly & monthly charts
Actual: $1968-$1851

Crude Oil
High Range $4181-4138; Low Range $3981-3920
Neutral-bearish range; Q3-4 bullish targets at $51 for fall.
Actual: $41.49-$38.87

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.

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