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Amid Global Wall of Worry, British Pound Still Risk Barometer Today

10/10/2018 11:15 am EST

Focus: FOREX

Robert Savage

Partner & CEO, CCTrack Solutions

Best to find some mint and a mortar. This is a muddle-through market with little hard news to move it. Headlines are less dramatic like the price action. This time it’s Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warning China not to devalue its yuan (CNY), writes Bob Savage Wednesday.

That’s even as the technicals point to a 7.00 break soon.

The IMF wants the governments of the world to pay more attention to their state assets as a source for money rather than new debt. Their blog also highlights the risk to EM but their central forecast of a muddle-through.

Other than that, markets remain hopeful for a Brexit deal, scared about the Italian budget and EU, worried about U.S. inflation and the FOMC reaction and waiting for more data to confirm any and all of the above.

The overnight lack of fear was different, though calling it a calm maybe too sanguine. There is still a lot of technical price pain in this market, which seems to enjoy the consolidation, but fears the next smash of the pestle.

For tracking risk mood, stick to British pound (GBP) with its trade and industrial production pointing to a 0.6% Q/Q growth in 3Q. And with hopes of a deal before the deadline with the EU on trade, the level of GBP becomes a barometer for the bigger global muddled hope trade.

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