Gold is at the highest level since June, we have been outright Bullish right here. The 30-year is at the highest level in a year and we have been bullish prices for months. Bill Baruch, president and founder of Blue Line Futures, previews E-mini S&P, Gold, Crude, Forex.
Bill Baruch’s FX Rundown short video for Jan. 3-4 here.
Despite flash crash/surge moves in the Aussie & yen last night, fireworks have yet to come. Bill Baruch breaks down what Friday's data deluge means for USD, euro, yen, Aussie & CAD.
E-mini (March)
Wednesday’s close: Settled at 2511, up 5.75.
Fundamentals: All was quiet on the trading front after a positive first session of the year. Hardly! Even before Apple (AAPL), -8% premarket, lowered first quarter revenue estimates, safe-haven assets refused to give an inch and traded higher on that seemingly quiet trading front.
Gold is at the highest level since June, we have been outright Bullish in Bias right here. The 30-year is at the highest level in a year and we have been bullish prices for months.
Additionally, we have pounded the table for more than a year that the yield curve will continue to flatten and even invert. Lastly, despite U.S. dollar (USD) strength, the Japanese yen (JPY) has come alive. In last night’s FX Rundown, we were again Bullish in Bias and overnight it gained more than 2% to hit our target. Ultimately, moves of this magnitude and this resilience in safe-haven assets do not happen during a healthy stock market.
Dallas Fed President Kaplan spoke this morning and pointed to the importance of patience with monetary policy. ADP Payrolls are out. Weekly Jobless Claims are out. ISM NY Business Conditions are out. ISM Manufacturing is the big read of the day. Tomorrow, we look to Nonfarm Payroll and Fed Chair Powell to define the week and set a pace for the start of the year.
Technicals: Price action settled at S&P 500 (SPX) 2511 and we do not view this as a close out above our rare major four-star resistance at ...
Crude Oil (February)
Wednesday’s close: Settled at 46.54, up 1.13.
Fundamentals: Crude Oil ripped higher Wednesday as news trickled out that OPEC production dropped 530,000 bpd. Aiding the move was the risk-appetite stabilizing from potential overnight panic. All in all, Crude Oil is signaling that it wants to go higher and seeing fresh support this morning with the dollar backing away from Wednesday’s high and the disappearance of China’s manufacturing contraction from the headlines. Still, inventory data is the big hurdle and after expectations trickle out through the day, the API private survey is due after the bell. EIA is due Friday at 11:00 am EDT.
Technicals: Price action has been favorable and the fact that it has been flirting with major three-star resistance at ...
Gold (February)
Wednesday’s close: Settled at 1284.1, up 2.8.
Fundamentals: Gold has traded to a new high for the fourth session in a row reaching 1294.3. ADP Payrolls were a blowout number coming in at 271k versus 179k. However, weekly Initial Jobless Claims were the highest level in four weeks and last week was revised higher. Furthermore, the strong job growth from ADP does not mean that wages upticked given that this could be a great chunk of holiday hires.
True safe-havens such as Gold, Treasuries and the yen have outperformed all other asset classes despite U.S. dollar strength. With Nonfarm Payroll in the crosshairs tomorrow and Gold facing strong overhead psychological resistance we advise that traders lock in some gains in one way or another. Call our trade desk at 312-278-0500 for help.
Technicals: We have been outright Bullish in Bias Gold since the pullback that we called a buy at 1236. Today, we are neutralizing our Bias just slightly in order to exude caution heading into tomorrow’s deluge of data. We prefer to capitalize on strength and not react to weakness. Major three-star resistance comes in at…
