Bill Baruch President of  BlueLineFutures.com, breaks down moves in major markets.

E-mini S&P (ESM)

Last week’s close: Settled 2910, up 9.50 on Friday and down 2.50 on the week

Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks slipped last night amidst strong overhead resistance, an uptick in geopolitical uncertainty and signs that China’s central bank will not stimulate the economy as aggressively. Crude oil is up 2% on news the White House is expected to announce an end to sanction waivers allowing some countries to import Iranian oil. China is allowed to import as much as 360,000 barrels-per-day of Iranian oil and this is not expected to sit well. One must wonder how it could affect the ongoing trade talks. Another cloud of uncertainty is brought by a statement from China’s Politburo, which implied they are less willing to extend stimulus measures now that the economy has found stable footing. A key driver in China’s stock market and those broadly around the globe is the excessive liquidity added by China’s central bank. The Shanghai Composite is down 1.7% today after these signs the punch bowl could be reduced.

Much of the globe is on Easter Monday holiday so the volume is a bit lighter at the onset of U.S hours. But make no mistake, today and the rest of the week will be pivotal as we dive into the heart of earnings season. Halliburton (HAL) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) are each up more than 4% premarket after topping earnings estimates. Coca-Cola (KO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Procter & Gamble (PG) and others report tomorrow. Facebook (FB) and Microsoft (MSFT) are due Wednesday, and Amazon (AMZN), Starbucks (SBUX), Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are a few in the back half of the week.

Chicago Fed National Activity is due at 7:30 am CT and Existing Homes Sales are out at 9:00 am CT.

Technicals: Overall, a wide wave of resistance at 2909.50-2914.75 kept a lid on rally attempts through Thursday and last night’s open. With that in mind, there is still major three-star resistance overhead at 2922.25 and price action failed on two attempts last week. A soft tape early in Thursday’s session did fight back, and the NQ was able to finish out the week on a constructive note, avoiding what could have been a 1% tail from a new all-time high. Price action came within 6.50 of matching that new all-time high last night before retreating. First key support at 7664.75 was crucial last week and is again, it has not given way since price action broke out of a two-week long consolidation Tuesday; a close below here should open the door to wave of profit taking at minimum. For the S&P, first key support comes in at 2900-2902.50; the bears will gain the slightest edge this morning if price action is suppressed both below here and 7703.75 in the NQ. But we look to major three-star support at 2891.75 which held on Thursday’s session to act as a line in the sand and as we said last week, a close below here should lead to additional selling.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 2909.50-2914.75**, 2922.25***, 2944.75-2947****

Support: 2900-2902.50**, 2889.50-2891.75***, 2878.50-2882.75**, 2866-2867***

NQ (June)

Resistance: 7728.75-7733.50***, 7800**

Pivot: 7703.75
Support: 7664.75**, 7604.25-7617.25**, 7556-7561**, 7498.50-7519.25***, 7442-7447.50**, 7400.50-7414.50***

Crude Oil (CLM)

Last week’s close: Settled at $64.07, up 0.20 on Friday and up 0.05 on the week

Fundamentals: Crude oil is up more than 2% this morning on reports the White House will end waivers on sanctions for importing Iranian oil. There are currently about eight countries who receive waivers to allow limited purchases. China could import the most, and India second at 300,000 barrels-per-day. To some degree, this was always highly possible and that is why the market is only up 2% on what otherwise is a major shock. Developments and details will continue but there are many political strategies to view this through and not limited to U.S and China trade talks or encouragement for OPEC+ to begin producing more crude in May. However, we do remember what happened last time OPEC began producing more to make up for a loss of Iranian oil, the White House allowed the waivers and the market went through the October – November – December shock. OPEC now may not be too quick to maneuver, and this could pin $70 in the cross hairs by Memorial Day. But remember, nothing moves in a straight line.

Technicals: Price action has ripped through previous highs which became major three-star resistance at $64.72 to $64.79 and is now at the highest front month level since Oct. 31. We have been upbeat crude oil and on Thursday said it was immediate-term bullish above $63.87. Our next resistance level comes in at $65.67 to $65.74 and this has kept a bit of a lid on the extended tape, but as long as it holds out above the previous highs which is now support at $64.72 to $64.79, the tape remains immediate-term bullish and our next upside target is for a deep test into $66.60. We will not up our Neutral/Bullish Bias in order to not encourage chasing this type of price action.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 65.67-65.74**, 66.27-66.60***, 67.95-68.36***

Support: 64.72-64.79**, 63.87**, 63.15***, 61.92-62.31***

Gold (GCM)

Last week’s close: Settled at $1,276, down 0.8 on Friday and down 19.2 on the week

Fundamentals: Gold is trying to gain some footing this morning and a miss on Chicago Fed National Activity should help. We then look to Existing Home Sales at 9:00 am CT. The White House is expected to end waivers on importing Iranian oil and not only does this make the geopolitical landscape a bit questionable, it pins U.S and China relations in the mix as China is allowed to import the most Iranian oil. Today is Easter Monday Holiday around much of the globe but China’s Shanghai Composite took a hit on expectations of less stimulus measure from China’s central bank moving forward. Gold certainly ticked up on this, if there is broader weakness globally it should help pick Gold from the lowest area since December.

Technicals: Price action held ground after a new swing low Thursday, and this is slightly encouraging. Still, the tape is weak and vulnerable as long as it stays below $1,280.8. Only a close back above $1,287.5 will neutralize this weakness.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1287.5-1291.9***, 1299.8**, 1306.4**, 1312-1314.7***, 1320.5**, 1330.3**

Pivot: 1280.8

Support: 1275.5*, 1255.8-1258.5***

Bill Baruch provides technical levels on all markets throughout the week at BlueLineFutures.com.