The Fed’s June policy statement had a large impact on these five markets.

Here are the markets that have been markedly impacted by the Federal Reserve’s June meeting statement , which deserve close scrutiny in the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hit 9922 and Ripple 0.45 as the erosion of carry from the Fed and Persian Gulf tensions help the crypto-space.

1) Gold

Gold pushed further into its five-year highs to make its biggest daily percentage gain in eight months and the biggest weekly gain in more than three years (when gold was gaining ahead of pre-US presidential election dynamics). It tested $1,350 last Friday and again Tuesday before backing off. It finally closed above $1,350 after the Fed and that kicked off a $27 surge to a five-year high at $1,411. This zone has been a major level of resistance going all the way back to 2014. The last time global central banks embarked on an easing cycle, gold hit $1,921. Add to it the escalation tensions in the Persian Gulf and you bolster the case for higher lows and a follow-up to $1,480.

2) USD/CHF

Increasingly correlated with the U.S. Dollar Index, The U.S-Swiss pair (USDCHF) is the biggest mover of the past two days (Thursday was the biggest percentage daily slide since Jan 2018), falling to 0.9800 from 1.000. It's carved out a rough head-and-shoulders top and broken the trendline that started in February 2018. USD/CHF can do well with Fed rate cuts but it can do even better if it's coupled with risk aversion because of a trade war or recession. Ashraf sent me a chart of a stabilizing and rising CHFJPY, suggesting that market risks may be shifting from the US-China fear matrix to that of a broader slowdown in global growth.

3) USD/JPY

USD/JPY has fallen by over a full yen (yen has risen) despite the run-up in global indices, highlighting the USD-side of dynamics. Ashraf's rationale to short USDJPY ahead of the Fed decision, whereby a dovish Fed would hurt USD and the pair, while a hawkish surprise would damage markets and boost the Japanese yen, thereby also dragging USDJPY. The Bank of Japan won't welcome the Fed’s dovish turn but there is now little support separating a return to the March 2018 and flash crash lows, both of which are near 104.50.

4) US Two-year Treasury note yield

Not every market is screaming the same message. US two-year Treasury note yields plunged 7% on Wednesday to a low of 1.69%, posting its biggest daily drop since September 2016, before turning around to finish higher on the day at 1.78%. Technically there isn't much of a reason to expect a further significant bounce but it's a spot to watch as the two-year yield is the highest positively correlated U.S. government  fixed income product with USD. The bond market was first to sniff out the Fed's dovish turn and any signals now are doubly important.

5) CAD against everything

The Bank of Canada is suddenly in a bind. Central banks almost everywhere else are poised to ease but the data in Canada has simply been too strong to follow along. Bouncing oil on the Persian Gulf tensions and absent Bank of Canada  has driven USD/CAD down to June lows and is threatening the February low of 1.3113. The BOC is loath to see the loonie strengthen rapidly, but their options to contain it are limited because there are no speeches scheduled ahead of the July 10 decision. The CAD trade in the Premium Insights remains short USDCAD at 1.3360/90.