Bill Baruch provides major market support and resistance levels.

E-mini S&P 500 (ESU)

Last week’s close: Settled at 3186.75, up 76.25 on Friday and up 144.75 on the week

Nasdaq 100: NQU

last week’s close: Settled at 9808.50, up 182.25 on Friday and up 248.25 on the week

Fundamentals: Melt-up? You ain’t seen nothing yet! On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 2.5 million jobs were added in May, yes added. The organization that report Nonfarm Payroll said not all respondents in the survey who are “employed but absent from work” were classified as unemployed, although they should be. The results of the survey were distorted, and economic bears will certainly scream this from the hills, but it does signal a reality not as dismal as projections. Analysts had expected eight million jobs lost. PMIs continue to contract, but by less than feared. Coupled with a better job situation and of course more than $7 trillion of Fed liquidity sloshing around, there is likely a faster than expected recovery right around the corner.

U.S benchmarks surged higher on Friday, keying off the better jobs data. Price action has held ground overnight and the better economic landscape continues to paint a path of least resistance higher. The Federal Reserve begins their two-day policy meeting tomorrow. There is not yet enough proof to force the Fed to dial back their dovish narrative, but this quarterly meeting will display economic projections.

With the market snowballing higher into and through a dovish Federal Reserve, barring a geopolitical disaster, there would seem to be nothing that could knock it off course ahead of quadruple witching June 19. Investors are screaming for stocks and call options premium is bloating. Amid last week’s steady rally, the VIX dropped 10%, but Implied Volatility rose, a rare occurrence. As investors buy calls to squeeze every bit of juice out of the market, market makers selling those calls are laying off risk by buying stocks. We see a potential atom bomb developing into the June 19th expiration when all of this unwinds.

Technicals: The path of least resistance is higher and, in the section, above we discussed how fundamentals and technicals will work together to not only pave this path, but also stop it in its tracks in two weeks. Between now and then though, there is no reason to not think the S&P will trade to 3339.50; the gap close from February 21st. The NQ has broken out above its previous record high and there is no reason to not think it will achieve 10,000, actually 10,035 to be exact. Major three-star support in the S&P aligns Friday’s close with our momentum indicator and above here the bulls are in the driver’s seat across all time frames. For the NQ, a similar level of key support comes in at 9782.75-9808.50. Ultimately, after the opening bell, can the bulls hold price action decisively above these supports? If so, we expect the session to finish higher.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 3212.75***, 3258.75** 3312**, 3339.50****
Support: 3186.75-3189***, 3169.75***, 3107-3114.75***

NQ (June)
Resistance: 9843***, 9875.50-9900**, 10,035***
Support: 9782.75-9808.50**, 9736.25**, 9626.25***, 9560.25-9586.25**, 9479.75-9481***

Crude Oil (CLN)

Last week’s close: Settled at W$39.55, up $2.14 on Friday and up $4.06 on the week

Fundamentals: Front month July crude oil surged above $40 as OPEC+ agreed to cut output through the end of July. The cartel was close to a deal early last week before data showed under-compliance from several producers. Iraq was the most talked about. With crude oil testing a critical technical breakdown point from March 9 just as the extension becomes official, it increases the likeliness of a “buy the rumor, sell the news”.   

Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 40.00**, 41.05-41.28****
Pivot: 39.19-39.55
Support: 38.18**, 36.87***, 35.79**, 34.69-35.18***

Gold (GCQ)

Last week’s close: Settled at $1,683, down $44.40 on Friday and $68.70 on the week.

Fundamentals: Gold was hammered Friday after Nonfarm Payroll showed jobs were created. Although the headline read weighed on the tape to close out the week, the failure that developed as the week unfolded helped provide that path of least resistance lower. With the BLS saying the reporting survey was distorted, Gold has bounced back a bit. Overall, we find the entire move more about positioning as the longs overcrowded the trade and this was a healthy washout in order to rebalance. Wednesday is the big day, U.S. CPI is due early, and the Federal Reserve concludes a two-day policy meeting in the afternoon. If inflation begins to show up, it will help offset a slightly less dovish Fed in the wake of better that feared economic data.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1705.8***, 1714.2-1716.6*, 1725.6-1726.8***,
Pivot: 1691
Support: 1683.3**, 1661.3-1669****

Bill Baruch provides technical levels on all markets throughout the week at BlueLineFutures.com. Please sign up at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. Email us at info@bluelinefutures.com to start the conversation and set up a phone call with our experts.