Bearish chart patterns pervade many symbols’ higher time frames, euro trades up short-term as we try to catch its falling safe on the right floor, says Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Traders may like the weekly-chart candlestick patterns in the euro futures from which I derive a range-based 1.195 target or a quarterly pivot 1.200 target. The two-day chart reversal that takes out prior low candles in their entirety leads me to claim the inside-pivots breakout is upside; the second-phase larger trade that may occur in late September-early October on European news may coincide with seasonal gold buying. Opinion is based on technical analysis; volatility studies favor buying a euro call spread.
My last article did state that gold could break out, which it did to the downside. I mentioned space-weather dates as potential bearish indices price move dates, and the August 3rd time pivot was the two-week period’s low. I was wrong about the euro’s direction. My article did forecast “energy storage” breakthrough news; the idea became infrastructure legislation inclusion as well as announced investments by Reliance Industries, Ltd (RELI.NS), Bill Gates, and Paulson & Co. in AMBRI, Inc., a non-exchange liquid-metal battery company. More importantly, futuristic battery types and other energy storage/smart-grid methods create new wealth participation in third-world areas and allow fewer power plants/sources, with added benefits of smoother power supply during grid dysfunction(s). 8 of 10 projected ranges printed as of July 30, 2021.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written August 13, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4489-4470; Low Range 4432-4418
Slightly bear-skewed range. Monthly Pivot 4347, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 4184, Yearly Pivot: 3225; Early-week, late week, and early next week are time pivots/space weather dates for bearish pricing. Solar minimum cycle is weakening, as geomagnetic disturbances are increasing.
Bitcoin
High Range 49550-48005; Low Range 44570-43900
Bullish ranges until Monthly chart three-wave pattern down continues, if it does; 37587, August’s Monthly Pivot may drag price. 80-day moving average resistance at 42719.
Euro FX
High Range 1.189-1.185; Low Range 1.178-1.170
Bullish ranges. 1.185 Monthly Pivot pulls from above. Trade small due to trending character not favoring reversals. Trade Idea: Long Euro call spread w/ 1.185-1.190 strikes or 1.195, or a laddering thereof.
Gold
High Range $1826-$1799; Low Range $1760-1741
Neutral ranges due to bullish weekly chart hammer candle in context of more bearish higher time frames than the Euro. Aggressive traders could long the hammer low with small lot sizing, but the trade could wait three-five weeks to mature requiring longer-dated option spreads than this article’s frequency.
Crude Oil
High Range $7214-7057 Low Range $6718-6641
Neutral-bullish short-term ranges. An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to $54-$46 that quickly recovers is possible. Weekly chart hammer is weaker than Euro and Gold with sellers’ shadow over its top, but rally attempt is coming.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written August 1 for August 1-15, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4329-4309; Low Range 4370-4357 (4339)
Slightly bear-skewed range. Monthly Pivot 43478, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 4184, Yearly Pivot: 3225; August 3, 11-13 are time pivot and space weather dates for potential bearish price moves.
Actual: 4463-4365
Bitcoin
High Range 43550-4221; Low Range 38200-36389
Bullish ranges until Monthly chart 3-wave pattern down continues, if it does; 37587, August’s Monthly Pivot may drag price. 80-day moving average resistance at 42719.
Actual: 48005-37300
Euro FX
High Range 1.197-1.193; Low Range 1.192-1.187 1184-1181
Bullish ranges. 1.185 Monthly Pivot pulls from underside.
1.190-1.171
Gold
High Range $1853-$1841; Low Range $1810-1804
Neutral-bearish ranges. Trending weekly pivot math with moving-average support. Yearly pivot: $1813 is near August’s $1807 pivot.
Actual: $1835-1677
Crude Oil
High Range $7621-7477 Low Range $7138-6964
Pullback range; “$70.16 is the 200-day moving average as one potential short trade target” that recently printed as predicted because I did not trade it. An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to $54-$46 that quickly recovers is possible.
Actual: $73.95-65.15
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
