My fiancée Anne and I escaped to France last week for a pre-wedding celebration. Stepping away from the media’s incessant “breaking news” proved refreshing. People get so worked up over headlines. Focus on Time in the Market, not Timing the Market, advises Adam Johnson, editor of Bullseye Brief.
The French were warm and welcoming, especially to Anne. Her Texas charm won them over. True, we had the Amex at the ready, but people were far more interested in commerce than complaints. Our dollars are good for France, and their culture is good for us.
Meanwhile, have you noticed that sell-offs are getting bought? Thank goodness. Markets tend to rise two days out of three, and current volatility is proving no exception. I think April marked the bottom, with several technical indicators reaching multi-year extremes. As you know, I’m actively deploying capital.
What’s good? Earnings are rising…jobs are plentiful…people are spending…inflation is easing…Powell and Trump have stopped fighting…Treasury Secretary Bessent is an adult…and everywhere, stocks are cheap at 19 times earnings with 14% growth. AI stocks are even cheaper.
What’s bad? Tariff uncertainty is real…guidance is hard to come by…consumer credit is rising…rate cuts are on hold…and sentiment has fallen to multi-decade lows (among consumers and investors). Curiously, overwhelming negativity is a bullish contra-indicator.
Overall, I see far more to like than to fear. Even experienced investors get bearish at the bottom and April’s low echoes this pattern, providing more reason to buy. I expect new highs on:
1. Trade/tariff resolution
2. Pent-up CapEx boosting GDP
3. New foreign investment creating jobs
4. Lower oil prices and budget deficits tempering inflation, and
5. Rebounding confidence stimulating demand.
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